July 12, 2016

expert reaction to the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017, which investigates current and future risks to the UK from climate change, has been published by the Committee on Climate Change.

Dr Sari Kovats, Senior Lecturer in the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine’s Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, said:

“Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, severity and extent of flooding in the UK. The devastation that followed the prolonged heavy rain and series of storms during the winter of 2013/2014 showed that we are far from prepared to deal with these changes. We also know that flooding has severe and long-term impacts on families and communities.

“More heatwaves in the UK are also likely yet there are no comprehensive policies in place aimed at reducing the risk of overheating in new and existing homes.

“The climate is changing. Those working in emergency response and the health and social care system, need to respond, and respond quickly to reduce the vulnerability of our health system to extreme weather events.”

Prof. Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds, said:

“The UK gets off lighter than many countries but this important report confirms that we are already seeing damage to homes, businesses and livelihoods. There are a few opportunities hidden in the mix but the future is clearly one of increased risk that we need to prepare for now.

“Climate change does not see the UK as an island and one of the biggest threats comes from overseas food security, supply lines and potential climate change-driven conflicts (e.g. over water supplies). These risks are largely unquantified as yet. As the report says – researching such international risks needs to be a top priority.”

Prof. Andrew Challinor, Professor of Climate Impacts at the University of Leeds, said:

“A fragmented world is more at risk than a cooperative one. Climate change risks cross international boundaries, and dealing with them requires cross-government and international coordination. The coordination needed to deal with climate change will be more difficult under Brexit.

“It’s not all bad news. The report notes the potential to use the climate change agenda to improve UK diets and health. The food we produce is a contributor to climate change, and foods with larger carbon footprints (e.g. meat) also tend to be less healthy if over-consumed. Also, the business case for action on climate change is increasingly recognised by the private sector. This creates an opportunity to improve our food systems, for example by reducing food waste.”

Dr Jeffrey S. Kargel, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Science at the University of Arizona, said:

“The findings released in the CCC’s UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Synthesis Report are familiar all over the globe.

“The regional details vary, but the UK’s recent recorded warming and the projected rise in temperatures and increases of extreme weather events are typical and pervasive across the Earth’s surface.  I have seen it in melting glaciers from Nepal to Chile to Alaska.  Climate change is occurring so rapidly that people around the world are noticing the changes in global warming and extreme weather with their own eyes and skin.

“This report documents the changes for the UK accrued until now and projecting forward for various scenarios. At the uncontrolled end of the possible future warming scenarios, the amount of warming comes close to the amount of warming that caused the end of the ice age, including the end of massive glaciation in much of what is now the U.K.  So we’re talking about geologically epochal climate change.  The lower end of the warming scenarios – what leaders of the world recently agreed upon as the desired target – is still considerable and will  combine with already accrued climate change to mark the 20th and 21st century as a period of historically unprecedented warming and climatic disruption across the planet.

“The changes are already so vast that Earth scientists now refer to this new human-impacted era as the Anthropocene (translated from Greek, it means ‘The New Human’ epoch). The desired warming limited to 1.5 degrees is considered survivable. But for many species and some entire ecosystems, and for many humans caught up in more severe extreme weather, even that tolerable warming level of 1.5 degrees will not be survivable.  Globally for humans and most other life forms on Earth it will be far better to have 1.5 degrees of warming than to have 4 degrees.”

Dr Rachel Warren, Reader in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change at the Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia (UEA), said:

“This is an evidence based report which provides an up-to-date assessment of the risks that climate change poses to the UK, and assesses the urgency of addressing each of them.  Examples of risks include flooding, heatwaves, and risks to natural ecosystems. The report will be a real asset in enabling decisions to be made about where and when the UK needs to invest in adaptation to climate change.

“This report improves upon the previous climate change risk assessment by considering the adaptation steps that people have already taken, or are planning to take, to protect the UK from these risks; and also by looking at the risks from the point of view of what is actually affected on the ground, rather than being a sector-based analysis.”

Prof. Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science at UCL, said:

“Given the shortfall of the pledges made by the 195 nations in Paris last December to achieve the agreed goal to ‘keep global temperature increase to well below 2C relative to preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C’, adaptation actions have to take a high priority. We have, in any case, to adapt to climate change already in the pipeline. As Chair of the London Climate Change Partnership, a partnership of public sector, private sector and civil society bodies committed to ensuring that London is the most climate resilient capital city, and therefore the most attractive for the inward flow of investment, jobs and people, I take an especial interest in the CCRA report.

“The report is well produced and clear to read. It is a tour de force and a hugely valuable instrument for seeking to keep our government honest and true to its responsibilities and accountabilities to protect the interests of UK citizens and businesses now and in the future. There is a case that it could have taken an even stronger position on some of the risks identified, such as climate driven human displacements, and on the opportunity to develop and export green technologies.”

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said:

“This very detailed report shows how the UK is already suffering economically from the impacts of climate change, particularly increasing direct risks of coastal and inland flooding, heatwaves and water shortages. As we have seen from the damage caused by record winter rainfall this year and in 2013-14, the UK is not well-prepared for dealing with the warmer and wetter climate.

“The Government has partly recognised this by setting up the National Flood Resilience Review, which is due to report later this month. The Met Office’s measurements show that eight of the UK’s warmest years since records began in 1910 have all occurred from 2000 onwards, during a period when we have also experienced six of our seven wettest years. It is basic physics that as the temperature of the atmosphere increases due to global warming, it holds more water, increasing the probability of heavy rainfall.

“The direct and indirect effects of climate change in the UK will increase in magnitude for the next couple of decades at least, because there is a lag in the response of the climate to rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. This means the UK will be facing mounting economic costs from climate change impacts at a time when our economy will be under much greater strain due to the uncertainty created by Brexit.”

Prof. Nigel Arnell, Professor of Climate System Science at the University of Reading’s Department of Meteorology, said:

“The report published today highlights the risks to the UK posed by climate change through flooding, high temperatures and water shortages, and this assessment is based on much accumulated evidence and science.

“The report also emphasises that we need more research in order to evaluate properly some risks that are currently not well understood – involving new and emerging pests and diseases, for example – and to plan the most effective adaptation measures.

“Risk assessment and adaptation planning need to be based on the most robust science and evidence, and also on rigorous and critical review.”

Declared interests

Prof. Challinor was a lead contributor to Chapter 7.

Prof. Arnell chaired the panel of UK and international experts who reviewed the evidence report and its conclusions.

Dr Warren was a lead contributor to Chapter 2.

Dr Kovats was co-lead contributor to Chapter 5.

No others declared