June 18, 2015

expert reaction to the Pope’s statements on climate change

The Pope issued an encyclical on climate change.

Prof Michael Grubb, Professor of International Energy and Climate Change, UCL, said:

“This will surely be remembered as the day it became clear that the UK has two governments. One that welcomes today the Pope’s Encyclical, is pressing for stronger action on climate change, which signed an unambiguous cross-party pledge to phase out coal, and which committed in its manifesto to deliver clean renewable energy as cost-effectively as possible. The other is the government which declared today it will prematurely end supports for the cheapest and most cost-effective of the UK’s renewable resources, which has injected fear and uncertainty into renewable energy investors, which seems set to cut back support for energy efficiency programmes which have helped to cut consumer bills and avoided the need for billions of new investment, and which proposes to slash the budget of the Department charged with implementing all this.

“Sooner rather than later David Cameron must clarify which government he is actually leading.”

Prof Myles Allen, Professor of Geosystem Science at the University of Oxford, said:

“What I find most puzzling is the suggestion the Pope has ‘no business’ to talk about climate change. The fact that the critics now largely agree with mainstream climate science on the numbers that actually matter means the debate has shifted away from how much we expect the world to warm this century if we carry on with business-as-usual towards how much we should spend, in times of austerity, on measures that mainly benefit our grandchildren. If Pope Francis can’t speak up for our unborn grandchildren, then God help us all.”

Prof Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science at University College London, said:

“The Pope’s message underscores a profoundly important insight, all too often missed or obfuscated – that despite having been revealed by science, climate change is not really an issue about science. It’s an issue about what sort of a world we want to live in. Do we care about the poor? Do we care about future generations? Do we see the environment as part of the economy, or the economy as part of the environment? What kind of a future do we want to create?”

Dr. Paul Young, Lecturer in Climate Science, Lancaster University, said:

“Anyone that can encourage 1 in 7 of the world’s population to think about how we confront climate change is doing a great service. Our future actions require serious thought and would obviously benefit from more people informing themselves about the issue, as well as engaging in the debate about what we do about it.”

Dr Simon Lewis, Reader in Global Change Science, University College London, said:

“The importance of the Pope’s encyclical is in making space to step back and contemplate the big picture. It is clear that the current set-up of human society is not environmentally sustainable. That billions live in poverty also highlights that today’s world system is not working for most people. It is an open question whether we can transform our energy systems fast enough to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts, so the Pope’s focus on this is welcome additional pressure.

“Whatever one’s view of religion, it is hard to dispute the core message that radical changes to our relationships with each other and our environment are needed to care for Earth, our common home.
“Economic changes will be central to transforming the current world system, but, as the Pope notes, a more fundamental re-assessment of our relations with the world we live in is also necessary.”

Prof. Piers Forster, Professor of Climate Change, University of Leeds, said:
“Carbon dioxide doesn’t care where it is emitted – this makes climate change a global problem that requires international cooperation at an unprecedented scale. Anything the Pope can do to help this gets my blessing!”

“The Pope is right to caution on the use of emission trading and carbon credits. These policies can help bring down emissions, but only if strongly regulated and controlled. Without this regulation such tools might only delay global emission reduction”

Dr. David Reay, Senior Lecturer in Carbon Management, University of Edinburgh, said:

“The Pope’s call for more action on climate change is timely and much-needed. As nations finesse their commitments for the global climate conference in Paris later this year, it is not just the weight of scientific evidence that will matter. Rather, it is the political and social acceptability of emissions cuts that will largely determine whether we get a deal in Paris that can avoid dangerous climate change. The Pope’s constituency is global and respect for his opinions extends far beyond Roman Catholics – all those pushing for a meaningful outcome from Paris just got a powerful helping hand.”

Dr. Matthew Watson, Reader in Natural Hazards, University of Bristol, said:

“Today the pope has clarified the position of the Catholic Church on climate change. The encyclical states that climate change is both dangerous and anthropogenic, counter to American right wing conservatives, who almost exclusively look to play down both attribution and impact.

“This puts the US politicians who ignore the overwhelming evidence on climate change in an uncomfortable position – many of their supporters place considerable stall in papal decrees and this one is unambiguous – start treating the planet better.

“Will it prompt a wholesale change in attitudes and behaviour? By itself I doubt it (we can hope). But it does represent a new battle front in the war on lies and misinformation that infuse the climate debate, and is window into a future where our effects on the planet are undeniable.”

Dr. Jeffrey S. Kargel, Senior Associate Research Scientist / Glaciologist, University of Arizona said:

“The call by Pope Francis to “care for the common home” is an urgent and needed appeal for public responsibility and political accountability on the matter of human-caused climate change. There is no rational question about it: human overconsumption of energy derived from fossil fuels is remaking our world so rapidly that humans are not doing well to keep pace with it. There are many scientific questions about climate change, many points of uncertainty, but the biggest uncertainties about future climate change actually pertain to whether politicians are able to make sound decisions or will refuse to do so.

“The Pope’s leaked statements about climate change– those I have read– are absolutely correct, for example, in attributing the bulk of glacier and ice sheet melting to human-caused climate change. The best glaciological analysis to date indicates that climate change and its impacts are apt to accelerate through the 21st century and beyond. Our shared planet’s climate system has entered a period of upheaval that the world has never experienced since the dawn of civilization. During the remainder of this century, accrued human-caused climate change will more than double. Already, the deglaciation of large parts of Greenland and Antarctica has been locked into the future by mainly human-wrought climate change of the past 100 years, so a doubling of what has already happened is indeed severe.

“Already, human-caused climate change has been felt by every common person– by mountain dwellers living amongst the glaciers, and by those who live in the lowland river valleys and near the seaside, by insurers and bankers and workers, by farmers and those who eat. Climate change already is felt across the globe in every nation and every state, province, city and village.

“The common person on the street knows that ice melts when we take it out of the freezer into a warm room, and likewise that glaciers melt during a warmer climate. The common person knows that when a city’s water supply runs out, life changes and residents’ aspirations dwindle. The common person knows that when nations run low on water, their power collapses and their people flee elsewhere. The Pope is making a statement about something that seems a “no brainer” to scientists and the layperson alike, but somehow many politicians just don’t get or choose not to get it so that they can avoid hard decisions.”

Dr. Chris Huntingford, Climate Modeller, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology said:

“The world has around twenty research centres independently analyzing how on-going emissions will affect climate. Whilst there remains disagreement on the magnitude of changes, all project future warming and altered rainfall patterns. With so much of society tightly tuned to contemporary meteorological conditions, then either much must be done to mitigate emissions, or major adaptation planning is needed. In such a context, then views and interventions from people such as the Pope, who represent very large sectors of community, are welcome.

“The only word of caution is that if we hear excessively about climate change, then a home goal could be achieved where many end up believing warming is a “done deal” and so have no say in the matter. Yet it is the large-scale collective action of individuals that will have a strong control on future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.”

Prof. Mark Maslin, Professor of Climatology, University College London said:

“For the last 25 years scientists have warned of the potential impacts of climate change if we leave our carbon emissions unchecked. The Vatican has evaluated the scientific evidence for climate change and decided that the World must act to avoid the devastation of our life supporting ecosystem. Pope Francis uses both scientific and moral arguments for the reduction in carbon pollution; to protect our environment and the poorest and most vulnerable people in the World who would be most directly affected by climate change. When theological, political and scientific leaders all call for rapid decarbonisation of our global economy it must be time we finally listen and create a binding international climate change agreement.”

Prof. Gabi Hegerl, Professor of Climate System Science, University of Edinburgh said:

“As a scientist and a catholic, I am very pleased. It is encouraging that the pope bases his encyclical on scientific evidence. Spiritual leaders like the pope are in an excellent position to discuss the ethical dimensions of the climate change problem: justice between the developing and the developed world, stewartship of creation and preserving our amazing natural world. The pope is really living up to the example set by St Francis of Assisi.”

Revd. Prof. Michael J Reiss, Professor of Science Education, UCL Institute of Education, University College London and President of the International Society for Science & Religion said:

“The Catholic Church has over one billion members. It is therefore heartening that its leader, Pope Francis, is pushing it and the rest of us to take global climate change seriously. It is especially heartening that humans are held accountable and that the Encyclical is reported as emphasising that it is the world’s poor who will suffer disproportionately if climate change continues.”

Prof. Andrew Watson, Royal Society Research Professor, University of Exeter said:

“I am not a catholic, but I’m more heartened by the pope’s leadership on this issue than that of any politician, academic or pop star. The spiritual leader of over a billion people has spoken out on climate change with the full authority of the Catholic Church, and I hope this may be the moment when the opinion of the whole world reached a turning point. It may be surprising to some, but the Vatican has a long tradition of keeping itself well informed about scientific issues, and Pope Francis has listened to his advisors. In the end, it seems that whether you approach climate change from a purely scientific and secular viewpoint, or from a spiritual concern for the Earth, you reach the same conclusion once you have the facts: the global ecosystem, which sustains us and all other living creatures, is being rapidly changed by our greenhouse gas emissions and we must take decisive action to curb them or face unknown and unintended consequences.”

Prof. Tom McLeish, FRS, Pro Vice Chancellor (Research), Professor of Physics, Durham University said:

“The Pope’s encyclical is a welcome example of the way scientific findings should inform the task of churches, and how serious faith-based thinking can assist the turning of scientific findings into action.”

Prof. Andrew Challinor, Professor of Climate Impacts, University of Leeds said:

“Human influence on the environment, when left unchecked, creates far more problems than it solves. Calls to action such as this are vital for empowering change.”

Declared interests

Tom McLeish: As well as being a professor of physics I am also a lay preacher (‘Reader’) in the Anglican church, and the author of Faith and Wisdom in Science (OUP 2014). I was also in receipt of funding on a Templeton Foundation project with Prof. David Wilkinson (Durham) on ‘Equipping Religious Leaders in an Age of Science’, worth £770k 2015-2018

Chris Rapley: Mine is a direct quote from the play and book ‘2071’ written by myself and Duncan Macmillan.

No other interests declared.