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expert reaction to study projecting numbers of extreme weather events in Europe in 2100

Publishing in the Lancet Planetary Health scientists report that weather-related disasters could affect about two-thirds of the European population annually by the year 2100.


Prof. Paul Wilkinson, Professor of Environmental Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:

“This paper by Forzieri et al provides further evidence on the possible future impact of extreme weather on the European population under climate change.  It concludes that global warming could result in rapidly rising human impacts unless adequate adaptation measures are taken, with an especially steep rise in the mortality risks of extreme heat.  While the analysis only considered extreme events, and assumed no reduction in human vulnerability over time from adaptation, it is yet another reminder of the exposures to extreme weather and possible human impacts that might occur if emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated.  It adds further weight to the powerful argument for accelerating mitigation actions to protect population health.”


* ‘Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study’ by Giovanni Forzieri et al. will be published in the Lancet Planetary Health on Friday 4 August 2017.


Declared interests

Prof. Paul Wilkinson: “I have received research grant funding to my institution (LSHTM) from the Wellcome Trust, NERC, EPSRC, and the European Commission for projects relating to the impacts of, and responses to, climate change.”


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