October 21, 2014

expert reaction to paper modelling the risk of the international spread of Ebola via air travel

A study in The Lancet has modelled the potential for the spread of the Ebola virus via air travel of infected persons from affected areas. They emphasise the need for balancing these risks with potential harms due to imposition of restrictions on air travel from these areas.

Dr Adam Kamradt-Scott, Senior Lecturer in International Security Studies, University of Sydney, said:

“There is little question that exit screening would be a far more effective use of limited resources, as this study indicates. The modelling appears sound given that social phenomenon are often inherently difficult to track, and the authors should be commended for their attempt to do so.

“What this research fails to consider, however, is that in public health crises like Ebola the political pressure on leaders to be seen to be doing everything they can to protect their citizens is immense. We can have the best available evidence, but it won’t amount to a hill of beans if we don’t also understand the politics behind these events.”

‘Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak’ by Bogoch et al. published in The Lancet on Tuesday 21^st October 2014. 

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/ebola-outbreak/

Declared interests

None declared