July 24, 2018

expert reaction to heatwaves and climate change

Extreme heat has been seen in the northern hemisphere.

Prof Rowan Sutton, Director of Climate Research, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, said:

“No one should be in the slightest surprised that we’re seeing very serious heatwaves and associated impacts in many parts of the world.  An increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves has been a robust prediction of climate change science for decades.  The world as a whole has warmed by about 1 degree C since the nineteenth century, with greater warming over land.  Warming will continue and there will many more heatwaves, some with greater severity than those occurring now, in the decades to come.

“These events highlight the urgency of implementing the Paris Agreement and the need to strengthen it, as well as adapting to the serious changes in climate that are unfolding before our eyes.”

Dr Len Shaffrey, Senior Research Scientist, University of Reading, said:

“Global temperatures are increasing due to climate change.  The global rise in temperatures means the probability that an extreme heatwave will occur is also increasing.  Recent studies have assessed that climate change has increased the probability of extremes such as the 2017 European ‘Lucifer’ heatwave by a factor of at least 4.

“The UK and Ireland have been experiencing a prolonged hot and dry spell since June, with the first half of summer (1 June to 16 July) being the driest in the UK on record.  The hot and dry weather is associated with a high pressure weather system situated over the UK.  The high pressure means that the storms we occasionally get at this time of year are being steered much further northwards towards Iceland.”

Declared interests

Prof Rowan Sutton: “RS is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council.”

Dr Len Shaffrey: “I don’t have any interests to declare.”