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expert reaction to climate change and deaths from temperature extremes

Research in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health estimated the effect climate change could have on deaths resulting from hot or cold weather in the UK up until 2080. A before the headlines analysis accompanied this roundup.


Prof David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge, said:

“It seems clear from this analysis that the reduction in cold-related deaths per 100,000 people in each age group easily outweighs the projected increase in the heat-related death rate.  So, were the population make-up to stay the same into the 2080s, temperature-related deaths would actually fall.  Therefore it would be more accurate to say that increased number of future temperature-related deaths was wholly driven by projected population growth and ageing.”


 ‘Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s’ by Shakoor Hajat et al. published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health on Monday 3 February 2014.

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