October 21, 2020

expert reaction to latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19 from the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge

The MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19.

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“I’ve put together this table with data taken from today’s release by Birrell & de Angelis, which helps to summarize the regional heterogeneity in England.  The table compares median number of COVID-deaths on April 15 versus the forecast median regional number of COVID-deaths on 1 November 2020 (with uncertainty).  I’ve added a comment column which compares the respective medians.

“It remains too early for the reduction in infection-fatality-rate in the second wave to be demonstrably lower than in the first wave when the median was 0.9% (0.7% to 1.1%) versus currently estimated as 0.7% (0.5% to 0.9%).

“There has also been data this week (not from the MRC BSU) from Scotland – as we approach Scotland’s second wave, COVID-19 deaths are more than doubling fortnightly (running rate of 2.8 = {10+20+25+75}/{5+11+10+20}; compare yellow shading; also turquoise shading). Source: https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/detail.html#deaths

 Scotland

“The rate of increase in Scotland’s 2^nd wave is currently lower and slower in than March 2020, which is some comfort. But the bad news is that the autumn-rate in COVID-mention registered deaths has not yet started to abate. Moreover, Scotland’s average number of COVID-hospital admissions on 20^th & 23^rd March 2020 were 38.1 & 58.3 respectively, close to the most recent two weeks in Scotland: which is ominous unless due to earlier hospitalisation.

“For my comments on the England situation from the ONS stats on deaths yesterday, please see: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-ons-data-on-deaths-in-england-and-wales-week-ending-9-oct/.”

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-21st-october-2020/

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

Prof Sheila Bird: “SMB is a former Programme leader at MRC Biostatistics Unit but was not involved with the nowcasting & forecasts released today by the team from MRC Biostatistics Unit.”