select search filters
briefings
roundups & rapid reactions
factsheets & briefing notes
before the headlines
Fiona fox's blog

expert reaction to latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19 from the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge

The MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19.

 

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“I’ve put together this table with data taken from today’s release by Birrell & de Angelis, which helps to summarize the regional heterogeneity in England.  The table compares median number of COVID-deaths on April 15 versus the forecast median regional number of COVID-deaths on 1 November 2020 (with uncertainty).  I’ve added a comment column which compares the respective medians.

“It remains too early for the reduction in infection-fatality-rate in the second wave to be demonstrably lower than in the first wave when the median was 0.9% (0.7% to 1.1%) versus currently estimated as 0.7% (0.5% to 0.9%).

“There has also been data this week (not from the MRC BSU) from Scotland – as we approach Scotland’s second wave, COVID-19 deaths are more than doubling fortnightly (running rate of 2.8 = {10+20+25+75}/{5+11+10+20}; compare yellow shading; also turquoise shading). Source: https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/detail.html#deaths

 Scotland

 

“The rate of increase in Scotland’s 2nd wave is currently lower and slower in than March 2020, which is some comfort. But the bad news is that the autumn-rate in COVID-mention registered deaths has not yet started to abate. Moreover, Scotland’s average number of COVID-hospital admissions on 20th & 23rd March 2020 were 38.1 & 58.3 respectively, close to the most recent two weeks in Scotland: which is ominous unless due to earlier hospitalisation.

“For my comments on the England situation from the ONS stats on deaths yesterday, please see: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-ons-data-on-deaths-in-england-and-wales-week-ending-9-oct/.”

 

 

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-21st-october-2020/

 

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

 

Declared interests

Prof Sheila Bird: “SMB is a former Programme leader at MRC Biostatistics Unit but was not involved with the nowcasting & forecasts released today by the team from MRC Biostatistics Unit.”

in this section

filter RoundUps by year

search by tag