October 20, 2020

expert reaction to ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (week ending 9 Oct)

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released the latest data on deaths England and Wales, including deaths from COVID-19 in all settings.   

Prof Sheila M. Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“There’s no let up yet in the rate of increase in England’s COVID-mention deaths.

“Key data from Office for National Statistics are provisional counts of COVID-mention deaths by date of occurrence.

“My table, updated from last week, contrasts COVID-mention deaths in England (by week of occurrence) in early March 2020 and early September 2020. Not all deaths which occurred in the week ending 9 October 2020 have yet been registered so that the likely final count will be nearer 500.

“During the first wave, COVID-19 deaths increased by a factor of 10, week-on-week, in the first three weeks of March 2020. The weekly rate of increase then moderated to below doubling in the first two weeks of April.

“As we approach England’s second wave, COVID-19 deaths are more than doubling fortnightly (running rate of 2.2 = {166+239+366+520}/{75+99+166+239}; compare yellow shading; also turquoise shading).

“The rate of increase in England’s 2^nd wave is currently lower and slower in than March 2020, when it was initially 10-fold, which is the good news.

“The bad news is that the rate has not started to abate. By England’s changing our close contact patterns now, as Scotland’s central belt did from 13 October for 2-weeks and Wales did yesterday, we need to moderate down the rate of increase over the coming weeks, and the sooner the better.

“But we shall also need to sustain reduced contact patterns for months, not just weeks, to see us through the winter. Serial circuit-breakers can help us rein in exuberances.”

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

Prof Sheila Bird is a member of the Royal Statistical Society’s COVID-19 Taskforce