May 13, 2026

expert reaction to an analysis of global obesity trends

A study in Nature looks at global obesity trends in developed and developing nations. 

Dr Marie Spreckley, Research Programme Manager, University of Cambridge, said:

“This is an important and highly informative analysis of global obesity trends over the past four decades. Its central message is not that obesity is no longer a major public health challenge, but that obesity trajectories are more heterogeneous than the term “global epidemic” can sometimes imply.

“The findings suggest that, in some high-income countries, the rise in obesity prevalence has slowed, plateaued, or may even have begun to reverse slightly, whereas obesity prevalence continues to rise, and in some countries accelerate, across many low- and middle-income countries.

“A particular strength of the study is its focus on obesity “velocity”, defined as the annual absolute change in obesity prevalence. This is valuable because it captures not only how common obesity is, but whether prevalence is increasing rapidly, stabilising, or potentially declining over time. Two countries may have similar obesity prevalence today but very different trajectories, which has important implications for public health policy and healthcare planning.

“For the UK, the findings suggest that obesity prevalence may be stabilising, but at a relatively high level compared with many other high-income countries. This should not be interpreted as evidence that the problem has been solved. A plateau at high prevalence still represents a substantial burden for individuals, healthcare systems and society, and reinforces the continued need for effective prevention, treatment and long-term support strategies.

“The paper is strengthened by its exceptionally large global dataset and long-term perspective. The authors are also appropriately cautious in their interpretation. However, as with all observational trend analyses, the study cannot determine which specific policies, societal changes or healthcare interventions caused these patterns. Understanding why some countries appear to have achieved more favourable trends than others will be an important next step for informing future obesity policy and prevention strategies.”

‘Obesity rise plateaus in developed nations and accelerates in developing nations’ by Bin Zhou et al. was published in Nature at 16:00 UK time Wednesday 13 May 2026.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0

Declared interests

Dr Marie Spreckley: “I am a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge working on behavioural weight management, obesity care and patient experiences of incretin-based therapies. I am Principal Investigator of the AMPLIFY study. I have no personal financial conflicts of interest to declare.”

This Roundup was accompanied by an SMC Briefing.