As lockdown is relaxed and shops, schools etc start to reopen, the potential for transmission of the virus increases. Scientists and policymakers will be on the alert for a second wave. But what does that mean; what’s the difference between a harmful second wave and an ‘acceptable’ increase in cases; what’s the role of TTI and shielding in defence of a second wave; what are the early warning signs; what’s the significance of R-values in different sections of the population; and what can we learn from other countries that are ahead of us?
Three experts in infectious disease modelling and epidemiology took part in a SMC briefing and Q&A for journalists via Zoom.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh
Prof Julia Gog, Professor of Mathematical Biology at the University of Cambridge
Prof John Edmunds, Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine