July 20, 2005

scientists react to news of confirmed deaths from bird flu in Indonesia

Peter Openshaw, Head of Respiratory Infections Section at the National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College, said:

“This is a very worrying development. It’s difficult to know if a major outbreak is about to happen, but mutated H5N1 bird flu that spreads between people would be much harder to control than SARS or smallpox. The human mortality with H5N1 bird flu could be 30%, and an epidemic could infect 50% of world’s population. I am much more concerned about this than about terrorist threats.”

Ian Jones, Professor of Virology at the University of Reading, said:

“Any further occurrence of deaths caused by avian influenza is notable, at the very least as it reminds us the problem hasn’t gone away. However, based on the available data it seems to me unlikely this is true human to human transmission and more likely that this family contacted the virus directly in some way. I see it as re-enforcing the message that avian influenza remains as threatening as ever but not that the situation has got significantly worse.”