January 31, 2008

scientist reacts to research on hurricanes and sea surface temperature as published in Nature

New research published in Nature highlights links between sea surface temperature and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Matt Huddleston, Principal Consultant on Climate Change, Met Office, said:

“This paper is important in that it suggests the link between tropical storms and the warm Atlantic surface waters is perhaps stronger than realised in recent decades and this has huge implications for the impacts of potentially damaging hurricanes on infrastructure in the USA and the financial markets globally.

“Science already understands that there is a strong link between the temperature of the tropical oceans and hurricanes. Other factors also influence the number and strength of storms including how the prevailing winds change with height, dust storms from the Sahara and whether there is an El Nino or La Nina in the Pacific.

“For climate change and hurricanes, the past does not necessarily represent the future. The key for managing future risks is in unlocking the science behind these statistics and then including the new physical understanding in the world’s climate models. These models use the underlying physics and don’t rely on the past to predict the future. Only then will we be able to capture the changing nature of these extreme and damaging storms in our climate forecasts.”