select search filters
briefings
roundups & rapid reactions
Fiona fox's blog
UK experts commented on the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 1, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. This document is the first of three summaries of the 4th assessment report released in 2007. It focused on understanding of the human and natural drivers of climate change, observed climate change, and estimates of projected future climate change.
Ian Arbon, Chairman, Energy, Environment & Sustainability Group at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, said:
“There is now virtually no doubt that climate change is directly linked to mankind’s profligate consumption of energy; this issue cannot possibly be addressed by technology alone but requires lifestyle change; as a practical solution, IMechE proposes its Energy Hierarchy of (descending order of prioritity) Energy Conservation > Energy Efficiency > Renewable Energy Supplies > Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies > Current Practice.
“In essence, we should have taken action several years ago and we must implement these changes NOW – or there is a very real danger that human existence as we know it will be seriously jeopardised by the end of this century.
“There is now little doubt that both flooding and drought will increase faster than previously thought; this means, on the one hand, that our island’s coastal defences will have to be significantly strengthened and that, on the other, the water supply crisis in SE England will become very much worse; both of these problems will require very costly engineering works to resolve.”
Dr Kevin Anderson, Director of the Energy and Climate Change programme, said:
“The main message coming out of the IPCC’s latest report is that there is a strong consensus amongst scientists that the climate change seen since 1960 is a consequence principally of human activity.
“The principle cause of climate change is our rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels and the unprecedented increase in carbon dioxide as a consequence. Even with very large cuts in emissions over the next 20 years, we are heading for an increase in global temperature in the region of 3 degrees by the end of the century.
“Our historic and current emissions mean that the arctic polar ice cap will disappear every summer by the end of the century.
“The report points to the fact that a rise in temperature will trigger a number of natural feedbacks that will further increase emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
“Observations of real climatic changes tally with the predictions made in previous reports. The latest IPCC report reinforces the need for urgent action across the globe to reduce emissions.”
Prof David Lee, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Manchester Metropolitan University and World Meteorological Organisation, said:
“This is the strongest statement that has ever been made by the IPCC on the human interference in the climate system. The IPCC makes clear that the effects that we are seeing today are the result of past emissions and that we have not yet seen the full effect of these emissions because of the complexity of the climate system.
“The Summary for Policy Makers published today states that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel usage have grown from 6.4 GtC per year in the the 1990s to 7.2 GtC per year for the period 2000 – 2005, an increase of 12.5%. However, emissions from the transportation sector are growing at much faster rates. For example, the 1999 IPCC report on aviation showed that emissions from civil aviation were~98 Tg C per year for the early 1990s. Using data that will be reported to next week’s triennial meeting of the environmental committee of the International Civil Aviation Organization in Montreal, civil aviation emissions have been estimated to be 166 Tg C per year in 2005, an increase of 70% over the period. What we have already done to the climate is yet to be revealed: we should beware of the “ghost in the machine” and take measures to combat climate change now.”
Edward Hanna, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change, University of Sheffield, said:
“There is now an unmistakable anthropogenic fingerprint on climate change, and the effects are likely to become much more than a scientific curiosity and be realised as a serious worldwide practical nuisance within the next few decades.
“It is vital for the assured future stability of our species and the planet that we immediately integrate far more effectively at both the global and local scales to curtail harmful greenhouse-gas emissions.”
Professor Mike Hulme, Director, Tyndall Centre, said:
“This report confirms what scientists have suspected for more than a decade – human’s are now driving the changes we are seeing in the world’s climate and that over the coming decades we will introduce new climate-related risks in many parts of the world. Today’s benchmark report is a necessary and sufficient basis for designing policy – local, national and global. But the choices ahead of us remain just as difficult as they were yesterday – we have to steer ourselves and the world away from carbon-based fuels and we have to invest in a wide range of climate adaptation measures, mostly for the poor.”
Dr Dave S. Reay, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, said:
“This is a monumental achievement. The sheer number and complexity of predictive climate models developed since the last assessment report is enough to make one’s head spin. Add to this the output from thousands of research groups working on everything from ice sheets to termites, and the challenge of providing a considered synthesis of climate change science becomes truly immense. Working Group 1 have met this challenge and then some.
“For those hoping for good news, this report will make painful reading. Avoiding 2 degrees C of post-industrial warming looks harder than ever – the role of positive feedbacks in the global climate system gaining new prominence.
“With caveats and uncertainties, scenarios and forcings, the 4th Assessment Report could make a dry old read, but between its conservatively-worded lines hangs the very future of human civilization.”
Dr. Meric Srokosz, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS), said:
“The IPCC WG1 4th Assessment Report unequivocally shows that human activities are causing the world to warm, and that this warming is set to continue over the coming century. These effects are seen not only in air temperature increases, but in ocean temperature and global sea level rises. The report is a further impetus for us – human beings and our representatives in governments – to take action on this issue.”
Professor Ian Colbeck, Director, Centre for Environment and Society, University of Essex, said:
“The science has been improved and the uncertainties reduced since the last report in 2001. The report concludes that it is very likely that human activities are responsible for the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. This is the strongest conclusion to date and makes it virtually impossible to blame it on natural forces.
“If it wasn’t for aerosol emissions offsetting some of the warming, temperature increases could have been significantly higher. However legislation to reduce emissions of aerosols, to improve air quality, could have an adverse impact on global warming in the future.
“It’s now time for the politicians to act and agree on a co-ordinated policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
Bob Sargent, President, Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, said:
“This is a further refinement of the previous report. It gives us even more certainty on the likely fate of our climate over the rest of the century. The predicted changes are now beyond all reasonable doubt and will cause environmental damage, and increasing social and economic instability, over the coming century. We are all in for a rough ride and we have got to focus on how we can avert the worst consequences. Its time to stop staring at the headlights and take action – the longer we leave it the worse it will be.”
Professor Mike Hulme, Director, Tyndall Centre, said:
“The Report released today by the IPCC presents an authoritative assessment of the scientific understanding of climate change as a physical phenomenon. This new assessment confirms the physical scientific basis upon which the work of the Tyndall Centre is founded: the changes in climate now being observed are greater than any recorded in recent human history, human influence on climate is now the dominant factor driving these changes, and that further changes in a wide range of climate-related risks are inevitable as the century unfolds. The Centre’s work is oriented towards understanding the options to limit these risks by actions taken now and in the next few decades: (a) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and (b) to stimulate across societies greater resilience to climate-related risks.
“For the UK, the existing recommended guidelines for climate change planning contained in the four UKCIP02 scenarios (from low emissions to high emissions) remain consistent with this new IPCC report: a likely annual warming of between 2 and 3.5degC by the 2080s, a rise is sea-level of between 10 and 70cm, more heatwaves, more heavy winter rain, and less wintry weather. It remains very unlikely that the Gulf Stream will be radically altered this century.
“The Working Group 1 report does not assess our knowledge about what future changes in climate might mean for the living world and for human infrastructure, nor does it make comment about our ability to mitigate these changes in climate or to adapt to them. The reports by Working Groups 2 and 3 (to which many Tyndall Centre researchers have contributed) will address some of these questions, and are due to be published in April and May respectively.”
Prof Bill Mcguire, Director of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, UCL, said:
“The report reinforces what many of us have already taken on board; that rapid climate change due to human activities is happening now and that it is fast getting worse. Bleak though the report’s forecasts are for our future, our children’s future, and beyond, we should remember that the findings actually represent a pretty conservative consensus. As a consequence the report barely touches on less mainstream predictions, for example in relation to the catastrophic break-up and melting of the polar ice sheets. The corollary of this is that the true situation may be far worse than presented in the report.”
Professor Nick Pidgeon, Chair In Applied Psychology, Cardiff University, said:
“The new IPCC report demonstrates that the debate over climate science is effectively over. We now face the far harder task of ensuring that actions to combat climate change become a part of the everyday lives of ordinary people in Britain, as well as the most urgent policy priority of governments both here and elsewhere.”
Ian Fells, emeritus professor of energy conversion, Newcastle University, said:
“It is now a matter of extreme urgency that we cut back on burning fossil fuels. Decisions have to be made immediately to extend nuclear new build as well as renewables.
“The message from IPCC is stark indeed, we are almost certainly past the “tipping point” and will be hard put to it to hold carbon dioxide emissions to the top limit of 550 ppm unless low carbon technologies are introduced as a matter of extreme urgency.”
Peter Harper, Head of Research and Innovation at The Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT), said:
“The IPCC clearly sets out the problems. But there are solutions, and the Centre for Alternative Technology has been exploring them for over thirty years. The UK can live well on a lot less energy, and get much more from renewables.
“Research, demonstration and investment now will save heavy costs in the future. Dealing with the challenges of climate change and energy security holds the potential to deliver powerful new economic opportunities, but only if we act ahead of events. CAT is here to show ways to do it.”
Andrew Furlong, Director of Policy at the Institution of Chemical Engineers , said:
“The battle against climate change involves everybody. The whole country needs to get behind a campaign to make significant cuts in the amount of CO 2 we produce. Government, industry and the individual can all make a difference, no matter how small their action. A collective approach will enable us to make the change.”
Dr Jeremy Leggett, CEO of Solar Century, said:
“The first of these assessments, 16 years ago, was bad enough. With the second and third, the news got worse as the science hardened. Now, with the fourth, we have the hardest science yet, leaving no room for doubt. We also have a depressing catalogue of the first wrecking thumb-prints of man-made warming around the world. Now, finally, after a decade and a half of dither and denial, will we act in a meaningfully way? Or will we continue with our collective sleep-walk to disaster, addicted to the fuels that cause most of the problem, and neglectful of the technologies that can save us?”
Professor Bob Spicer, Director, Centre For Earth, Planetary Space And Astronomical Research, Open University, said:
“It is the nature of science that scientists question both the evidences and each other, That so many scientists agree in this report demands that it be taken seriously and acted upon without delay. Those who disagree are in such a minority that their competence and motives need to be questioned.
“This is the clearest view of the future that humankind has ever had. It is necessarily conservative, is based on sound science, and has been careful to avoid wild speculation. From personal to political there is now no excuse for inaction.
“There are still major uncertainties surrounding such things as melting of the ice caps, nevertheless the predictions for sea level rise in the report, and the melting already in train due to emissions of greenhouse gases that have already taken place, guarantee a future where social and economic issues of food production, water availability and climate driven migration are things we have to begin to manage now.
“Ice caps are difficult things to get to start to melt and just as difficult to stop. It is clear we have started the melting and that they are going faster than we anticipated just a few years ago. The remaining uncertainties regarding future melt rates are such that they cannot be used as a screen to ignore the inevitable consequences of inaction.”