June 4, 2015

predicting death – who is at risk of dying in the next five years?

Is it possible to predict who will die within the next five years? Scientists have used UK Biobank data to carry out a systematic comparison of predictors of death in middle-aged to elderly people, and have published their results in the Lancet. They investigated whether measures that can be obtained by simple questionnaires without any need for physical examination could reliably predict risk of death within five years in people aged 40 to 70 years.

Roundup comments accompanied this briefing.

Two of the authors came to the SMC discuss things such as:

• Can each of us reliably calculate our 5-year mortality risk?
• Which demographic, lifestyle and health factors best predict whether we might die soon?
• And can they predict what we might die from?
• Are these factors different in men and women?
• What can individuals take from this; is there anything we can do about it?
• Is this useful for health professionals or public policy makers?
• How has UK Biobank data allowed this research to be undertaken?
• How accurate are the predictions likely to be?
• What can clinical and laboratory measurements tell us that survey questions cannot?

Speakers:

Prof. Erik Ingelsson, Professor of Molecular Epidemiology, Uppsala University, Sweden

Dr Andrea Ganna, Research Fellow, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden