June 5, 2020

nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 data

Journalists joined Prof Daniela De Angelis and Dr Paul Birrell, who lead the Medical Research Council (MRC) Biostatistics Unit’s work on analysing real-time COVID-19 data. The MRC statistical modellers are working with Public Health England (PHE) Joint Modelling Cell to produce regular nowcast and forecast COVID-19 infections and deaths. This information feeds directly to SAGE sub-group, Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M) and to regional PHE teams.

They discussed the very latest results and gave journalists an opportunity to discuss:

• What does the data tell us about what is happening right now?
• How robust is this data and what are the limitations?
• What is the forecast for deaths in the next few weeks? What are the caveats we need to bear in mind?
• Does it give us any insight into the relaxation of lockdowns?

The latest data is available from this link: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/

Speakers included:

Prof Daniela De Angelis, Programme Leader and Deputy Director, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge.

Dr Paul Birrell, Visiting Senior Research Associate, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge. His work focuses on the development of complex statistical models for epidemics, to estimate disease transmission and predict burden.

An SMC roundup accompanied this briefing.