October 29, 2008

experts comment on the earthquake in Pakistan’s Balochistan province

The earthquake struck south-west Pakistan with a magnitude of 6.5 on the Richter scale; local reports put the number of dead at 170, with several hundred more injured.

Prof Bill McGuire, Director of the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, said:

“This most recent earthquake in Pakistan is a reminder that a mix of poorly-built homes, inadequate preparedness and a high level of seismic hazard constitutes, literally, a recipe for disaster. Unless and until money and effort are put into designing and building homes that can withstand the earthquakes that are so common in the region, we will see more of the same.”

Dr David Rothery, chair of the Open University’s course on volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis, said:

“Today’s earthquake in Balochistan occurred in the same region as a somewhat larger quake that killed 35,000 in Quetta in 1935. This is a tectonically complex area near the northwest corner of the Indian continental mass that is colliding northwards into mainland Asia, and it was particularly violent because the initial break occurred at a relatively shallow depth of about 10 km. The pictures I have seen show the roofs of cheaply-constructed single story homes having collapsed. It is well known how to build roofs adequately tied to walls so that this doesn’t happen, but enforcing building codes in poor regions like this is notoriously problematic. There would have been fewer victims if the quake had happened a few hours later, when more people were out of doors.”

Dr Stephen Edwards, Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, said:

“Although the region affected is sparsely populated, it is likely that many people will have been killed or injured over a large area. This is because the earthquake was focused at a shallow depth, meaning that much of its energy will have reached the surface, and people would have been asleep in homes not designed to withstand big earthquakes. Many survivors will now be vulnerable because relief aid will take time to reach the remote mountainous area and it is cold in this terrain at this time of the year.”