select search filters
briefings
roundups & rapid reactions
Fiona fox's blog
Scientists comment on Spanish wildfires.
Prof Guillermo Rein, Professor of Fire Science at Imperial College London, said:
“The wildfire in Los Gallardos, Almería, appears to have encountered a worst-case triple combination: an ignition within an extensive landscape of extremely dry vegetation, strong winds, and a nearby unprepared community. These conditions allow flames to spread extremely rapidly towards homes, overwhelming fire brigades operating in extraordinarily difficult circumstances. The recent heatwaves had already dried the landscape, turning vegetation into readily available fuel.
“However, extreme weather alone does not explain such a tragedy. The wildfire must be investigated carefully, but it is neither fate nor the result of a simple error. Wildfire disasters are often the result of years of neglect and slow decision-making in addressing a natural hazard that occurs in our forests and ecosystems and increasingly threatens our communities.
“The solution is not simply a new aircraft or more water. Wildfire safety requires multiple layers of protection. These include educating the public about wildfire, managing vegetation and fuels, creating defensible spaces, detecting fires early, responding strongly during the initial growth period, forecasting fire spread, anticipating where it may move next, planning evacuation routes in advance, and regularly training both authorities and local populations.
“Firefighters cannot be expected to stop every extreme wildfire. Climate change will make these conditions more frequent and severe. Preparation of all the safety layers for the next major wildfire must begin now.”
Mr Joe McNorton, Land Surface Modeller, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said:
“Our initial analysis suggests we are seeing conditions similar to those that preceded last year’s record-breaking fire season across Europe.
The pattern is characterised by an unusually wet spring period, which promoted above-average vegetation growth and created a larger available fuel load. This was then followed by a prolonged period of warm and dry conditions, particularly across Iberia from April onwards, which rapidly dried this vegetation and increased its flammability.
This combination of abundant fuel and increasingly dry conditions has created the ingredients for extreme fire behaviour, which is what we are currently witnessing across the region.”
Dr Thomas Smith, Associate Professor in Environmental Geography, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), said:
“The extreme wildfire behaviour we’re seeing in Spain is closely linked to the extreme heatwave weather conditions. Fire behaviour (how quickly a fire spreads and how intensely it burns) is heavily influenced by the weather. Research shows that key measures such as rate of spread and the size of flames increase exponentially as fire weather becomes more severe, meaning that relatively small increases in extreme fire weather can produce disproportionately more dangerous fires.
“When weather conditions reach record-breaking levels, we should expect the potential for record-breaking fire behaviour, particularly when strong winds are present to accelerate fire spread and make suppression much more difficult.
“Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of the extreme heat and fire weather conditions that create these dangerous environments. While individual fires are influenced by many factors, including ignition sources, vegetation, and land management, climate change is inextricably linked to the record-breaking weather that is driving the conditions for these extreme wildfires.”
Dr Theodore Keeping, Research Associate in the Analysis of Extreme Weather and Wildfires, Imperial College London, said:
“Just the same as last year, the extreme fires we are seeing in Spain are the consequence of a moist spring allowing for vegetation accumulation, a dry summer, and extreme heat.
“Past studies mean that we know extreme heat and summer droughts are becoming more intense in the region, with these shifts attributable to human caused climate change.
“The rapid shift in fire weather extremes we are seeing means more intense fires, that burn hotter and spread faster. Whilst vegetation management and emergency response play an important role in fire risk, the increasing frequency of fire weather extremes is the key reason why we have seen such severe wildfire impacts over southern Europe in the last few years.”
Dr Kapil Yadav, Postdoctoral Research Associate at Royal Holloway, University of London, said:
“Helicopters and ground crews are playing a critical role right now to contain these fires. But firefighting alone is not the answer. We need to ask not only why these fires start but also why they can spread across such vast areas.
“Investment in fuel reduction and other preventive measures remains a fraction of what is spent on emergency firefighting. Until this balance is addressed, we are likely to see these devastating fires recur. These disasters should serve as a wake-up call to rethink our approach to wildfires rather than merely repeating past actions.”
Quotes from SMC Spain:
Gustavo Saiz, Senior scientist in the Department of Environment and Agronomy at the National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA-CSIC)
“This fire, like so many others, cannot be explained by a single factor. The origin of the fire (the ignition) – which in this case appears to have been caused by a power line – is one thing. The spread and progression of the fire are quite another.
“In this instance, there appears to have been a particularly unfavourable combination of very dry, continuous vegetation, exceptional temperatures, a prolonged absence of rainfall, extremely low atmospheric humidity (around 10 per cent during the most critical hours of the day), strong winds (gusts which appear to have reached 55–70 km/h), and a topography that favours rapid fire spread (the Sierra de Bédar has rugged terrain – ravines). The region had been experiencing an intense heatwave for several weeks. From what I can see, maximum temperatures of around 42 °C were recorded, along with numerous consecutive days above 35 °C, with very warm nights preventing the vegetation from regaining moisture. In this area, just a few weeks without rain during the summer are enough for fine fuel to reach very high levels of flammability.
“Taken together, these conditions have created a scenario of extreme risk, in which an initially localised fire can very quickly develop into a major wildfire whose behaviour is difficult to control. Yes, everything seems to point to this being a fire with extreme behaviour. The rapid spread forced mass evacuations and led to people being trapped, which are characteristic of very high-intensity fires. The 2017 Pedrógão fire in Portugal is a tragic example of an equally catastrophic fire with numerous fatalities, although that incident had distinct characteristics. There, the fuel load was much greater.
“At present, it cannot be stated that the fire is due to a lack of scrubland clearance. Nor can the opposite be stated until the Andalusian Regional Government reports on the preventive measures carried out in that area.”
The author has not responded to our request to declare conflicts of interest
Fernando Ojeda, Professor in the Department of Biology (Botany) at the University of Cádiz and head of the research group Function, Ecology and Biodiversity in Mediterranean Ecosystems at the Institute for Wine and Agri-Food Research (IVAGRO)
“Over 3,000 hectares have been burnt, and that’s a massive amount. There have been bigger fires, but this covers a huge area. It’s not normal for fires of this scale to occur in Mediterranean landscapes. In most cases, with fires of this magnitude – for example, the one in Pedrógão Grande in Portugal in 2017, which claimed 64 lives, many of whom were trapped in their cars whilst trying to flee – what is actually happening? The local vegetation is burning with great intensity. Many areas of our landscape have been afforested to prevent desertification, creating a uniform landscape of pine trees at the expense of less visually striking vegetation, such as esparto grasslands or other scrubland. In the east, these are Pinus halepensis, a native species that has undergone significant artificial selection through domestication and is highly successful. They are veritable powder kegs. They burn with such intensity that they become unstoppable hotspots; moreover, their cones burst open like embers and spread the fire even further. Mega-fires are associated with forest plantations, as I explained in an article in The Conversation.”
The author has not responded to our request to declare conflicts of interest
Marcelino Núñez, Regional Representative of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) in Extremadura
“The wildfire in the municipality of Los Gallardos, Almería, is one in which the most significant meteorological factors are: the wind, which from the early hours blew in strong westerly gusts and contributed to the fire’s rapid spread; and the low relative humidity, which also aided this spread. The fire danger index forecast by Aemet for yesterday, the 9th, was ‘Extreme’, as it is for today. The fire danger in the municipality of Los Gallardos has remained at the ‘Extreme’ level continuously from 5 June until today. However, I would not go so far as to describe this fire as having any particularly unusual characteristics, based on meteorological criteria.”
The author has not responded to our request to declare conflicts of interest