May 1, 2025

expert reaction to US-Ukraine Minerals Deal

Scientists comment on the US-Ukraine resources deal. 

Dr Gavin Mudd, Director of the Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre at the British Geological Survey, said:

“Ukraine has important deposits of titanium, rare earths, lithium and graphite – and has also produced gallium and scandium in the recent past. Rare earths are particularly sought after for use in digital technologies, renewable energy, aerospace and the automotive sectors, but also have various applications in military technologies too – such as in laser guidance systems. Titanium metal is often used in aerospace given that it is stronger and lighter than steel.

“If this agreement paves the way for new supplies of rare earths, that should have a notable impact on the diversification of global mining activities for rare earths – and reduce the dominance of China in the supply of these sought after materials. That would have a positive impact for all countries seeking rare earths, including the UK.

“While the details of this agreement will still need to be considered closely, it is likely that some developments in terms of mineral production could be achieved quickly – assuming peace and security in the regions of focus. This could apply to titanium, lithium and graphite, while Ukraine may have an increased ability to rebuild some of their former capacity for scandium and gallium under the terms enshrined the deal.

“However, in the case of rare earths, it will take years to ramp up capacity – studies will need to be completed to assess and determine how best to mine the deposits and process the ores and produce rich concentrate, and a new refinery will be needed to produce high purity metals and oxides for use in numerous technologies. All of this sits alongside the need to actually mine the minerals. We are looking at about a decade or longer for this to come online.

“I see this deal as the continuation of a recent trend of critical minerals having a central impact on geopolitics and international affairs, and I expect this impact to continue to grow, given the fundamental importance of critical minerals to the energy transition and net zero, national security and the ongoing rise of digitalisation – including AI and the coming rise of quantum computing.

“Although rare earths currently appear to take centre stage in such negotiations, there are many other critical minerals where China enjoys a dominant position in terms of supply – including gallium, germanium, tungsten. With recent export controls placed on them by China, it is a solid bet that geopolitical interest in securing a reliable supply of these materials will grow over the coming years.

Declared interests

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