March 29, 2020

expert reaction to updated numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has released the latest numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the UK on Sunday 29th March.

Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, University of Oxford, said:

“209 deaths are a terrible loss. It is true that this is less than might have been expected from exponential growth. However, daily numbers can be lower (or higher) than expected due to random factors. It is far too early to conclude that the lower number today than yesterday is not simply due to chance.

“I am confident that provided we follow social distancing the increase in deaths will stop and this will be followed by a decrease in the daily numbers.  It can take up to two weeks from infection to onset of symptoms. For over 80 % of people these symptoms are mild, for the much smaller number who develop the most serious illness, intensive care is needed around 10 days later.  For those who do not recover but die, data from China suggests this takes around another 4 days. The tragic deaths today will be from people infected roughly a month ago. It is inevitable that there will be more tragedies for families ahead.

“We can reduce the final death toll only by following current Government advice. We must expect and welcome changes in Government advice as science, medicine and social science work together to learn more. “

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, said:

“It may seem callous to say that 209 deaths is reassuring, but it breaks the run of 30% daily increases we have seen recently. But it is still too early to claim that the curve is beginning to flatten off. It is also important not to over-interpret counts for single days: delays in reporting can lead to the numbers varying far more than one would expect by chance alone. For example, one of the deaths reported today actually occurred 13 days ago.”

Prof Eleanor Riley, Professor of Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Edinburgh, said:

“It would be most unwise to infer any trend from a single days data. Only when the epidemic has peaked – which is some time away – and we get sustained daily reductions in new cases and then sustained daily reductions in deaths, will we know that are beginning to get on top of the epidemic.”

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244248001868111874

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www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19/

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