October 17, 2025

expert reaction to UKHSA suggesting data suggests an early flu season

Scientists comment on UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) data that suggests an early flu season.

Prof Antonia Ho, Professor and Honorary Consultant in Infectious Diseases, Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, said:

“UKHSA data show that flu is circulating earlier than usual this year, with positive cases identified from the end of September, similar to the 2022/2023 flu season.  This rise is mostly driven by older children (5-14 years) and young adults (15-24 years), though it is also increasing in other age groups.  Flu-associated hospitalisations are also increasing, from 0.73 to 1.27 per 100,000 over the past week, predominantly affecting the older age groups (>75 years).

“The half-term school holidays (this week in Scotland and last week of October in England and Wales) may help reduce transmission.  However, vaccination remains the best protection for you and those vulnerable around you.  I would strongly urge those who are eligible for vaccination, including those aged 65 years and older, 18-65 years in risk groups, pregnant women, children aged 2-11 years, health and social care workers as well as carers.  The good news is flu vaccine uptake is 28% better than this time last year in England (https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/10/huge-increase-in-flu-vaccination-as-cases-rise/), but it can definitely improve.”

Prof John Tregoning, Professor in Vaccine Immunology, Imperial College London, said:

“Influenza virus is the cause of flu.  It causes a mild to severe respiratory infection; the risk of severe disease is higher in the elderly and those whose immune systems are impaired.  Influenza virus can also increase the likelihood of heart attacks in the weeks immediately after infection.  There is a vaccine against it, which will reduce the risk of severe disease.  Importantly it can also reduce the risk of flu-related heart attack.”

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-weekly-winter-surveillance-bulletin

Declared interests

Prof Antonia Ho: “I have previously been funded by Public Health Scotland to undertake enhanced surveillance for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 (2021-2025).         I was previously employed as a clinical consultant for the WHO Global Influenza Programme (2023-24).  I am currently funded by Pfizer to evaluate the real-world vaccine effectiveness of RSV vaccine.”

Prof John Tregoning: “Have consulted for Sanofi and Moderna; have worked with BioNTech.”