July 13, 2026

expert reaction to UK wildfires

Scientists comment on wildfires in the UK. 

Dr Joe McNorton, Fire Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said:

“Across the UK we are seeing a combination of hot, dry weather and vegetation that has become increasingly combustible after a prolonged period without significant rainfall. Even in the UK, where large wildfires are relatively uncommon, these conditions can allow fires to spread quickly through grass, heath and moorland once they start. Importantly, wildfire risk has a memory, and it can take weeks or even months of warm, dry conditions to remove moisture from vegetation and create a landscape that is ready to burn.

“The weather on a given day, such as high temperatures, low humidity and wind, determines how quickly a fire can grow once it starts. This is similar to the factors that contributed to the recent wildfire outbreaks in Iberia, where dry fuels and extreme fire weather combined with strong winds to drive rapid fire spread. However, the way wildfire risk develops can vary between regions. In Iberia, unusually wet conditions earlier in the spring promoted vegetation growth and increased the amount of fuel available to burn, whereas in the UK the current concern is more strongly linked to the gradual drying of existing vegetation. This is why wildfire risk is not determined by temperature alone, but by the interaction between dry fuels, favourable weather and an ignition source. Improving our ability to monitor fuel dryness alongside the weather is becoming increasingly important for anticipating periods of heightened wildfire risk.”

Dr Vikki Thompson, Postdoctoral Researcher in impact attribution from extreme weather events, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, said:

“As heatwave conditions are met yet again across the UK, we must remember that this raises the risk of wildfires. This week parts of the UK will experience the ‘perfect’ weather conditions for wildfires: hot, dry, and windy. This leads to the exceptional fire danger. 

“Heatwaves are becoming hotter, happening more often, and last longer. We know this is caused by fossil fuel burning – and so a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences.”

Dr Thomas Smith, Associate Professor in Environmental Geography, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), said:

“The UK has traditionally experienced many of its larger heathland and moorland fires in spring, when dead vegetation remains from winter and live plants have not yet fully greened up. In an ordinary summer, that new green growth contains enough moisture to make much of the landscape more resistant to fire. What we are seeing during repeated and exceptional heatwaves is that this natural seasonal protection can break down.

“Our research into the July 2022 heatwave found that extreme heat and atmospheric dryness synchronised the drying of dead vegetation, live vegetation and fuels on the ground like leaf litter and peaty soils. Conditions that would not normally occur together were aligned, creating much greater potential for ignition, rapid fire spread and severe impacts. The combined heatwaves this summer appear to be pushing fire into vegetation that would ordinarily be relatively resilient by July.

“Grass fires during summer heatwaves are not themselves unusual in England. What is notable is the geographical extent and intensity of the current fire weather. This past weekend and into this week, FireInSite.org has shown many locations reaching a 100% modelled probability of sustained ignition in grass fuels if an ignition occurs. That does not mean fires start spontaneously—the great majority still require a human or infrastructure-related ignition—but it means that an ignition is exceptionally likely to develop into a spreading fire.

“The other important feature of this weekend was the number of fires occurring at the rural–urban interface, where flammable vegetation meets homes and infrastructure. The fires around York and Walthamstow may be small compared with the large moorland fires that dominate annual burned-area statistics for the UK, but their consequences can be disproportionately large. The Walthamstow fire affected houses, dozens of gardens and sheds, forced evacuations and disrupted the railway. It is a reminder that hectares burned are a poor measure of risk on their own: a relatively small vegetation fire in a densely populated area can become a major emergency.

“There has also been some debate online about whether incidents such as these should be described as wildfires. Within UK wildfire science and operational practice, a wildfire is essentially an uncontrolled vegetation fire requiring suppression. It does not have to occur in a remote forest or cover thousands of hectares. A fire spreading through grass, scrub or railway-side vegetation and threatening houses is very much a wildfire—and is exactly the sort of rural–urban-interface risk that UK fire services increasingly need to prepare for.”

Declared interests

Joe McNorton: “No conflicting interests”

No others received.