June 19, 2020

expert reaction to UK COVID-19 alert level moving from Level 4 to Level 3

The government has announced that the UK COVID-19 alert level is moving from Level 4 to Level 3.

Prof Rowland Kao, Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science, University of Edinburgh, said:

“The reduction in threat level from 4 to 3 is welcome news of continued progress of getting COVID-19 under control.  While the eventual goal will be for COVID-19 to be out of general circulation with perhaps only sporadic outbreaks due to imported infection, we are not there yet.  Circulation in the country remains substantial.  What’s important is the ability to quickly recognise the extent of any new outbreaks, and rapidly contain them – a combination of good testing and tracing.  What the experience of other countries tells us is that there can be many bumps on the road, and a commitment to rapid containment is absolutely essential.”

Dr Stephen Griffin, Associate Professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said:

“This news is a sign of the decreasing levels of circulating SARS-CoV2 infection within the UK population and will be welcomed by many.  However, it is vital that this is not misinterpreted as a green light for life to revert to normal, or for unnecessary risks to be taken.  Level 3 still reflects that an epidemic is ongoing and that significant numbers of new infections, and sadly deaths, are occurring every day.  Moreover, many patients are suffering from the longer-term consequences of COVID19.

“Whilst the level of infections is indeed decreasing, the rate of this decline is relatively slow and this is creating a long “tail” to the UK epidemic not seen in other countries.  It is important that we do not become desensitised to these numbers – the fatalities on any single day constitute a national disaster under any other circumstance.  Other countries show us that, even when infection rates are suppressed well below the levels we are currently experiencing, that the virus can rebound incredibly quickly.  We must bear this in mind as we restart the economy and reopen public facilities.  Most importantly, we must ensure that those most susceptible to severe COVID19, predominantly those being shielded, receive the necessary support, guidance, and accurate information that will allow them to make informed decisions about any potential adjustments to their ongoing situation.

Prof Matt Keeling, Professor of Populations and Disease, University of Warwick, said:

“I think this move to Alert Level 3 is expected and is justified by the current epidemiological situation.  Our model-based assessment of the outbreak shows that cases are now at levels comparable with early March (before the lockdown began) and are continuing to fall albeit slowly.

“The move to level 3 is a direct consequence of the public’s response to the social-distancing advice, but does not imply that these efforts should be relaxed.  We cannot afford to lose the gains that have been made in controlling this outbreak.

“The move to level 3 is not a time for complacency, there is still the prospect of a second wave if controls are relaxed too quickly and the reproductive number (R) rises above one.

“We are likely to be entering a new phase of this outbreak, where nationally and regionally cases will continue to decline, but locally there will be isolated clusters of cases that need to be contained.”

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers-on-the-uk-alert-level

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