February 19, 2013

expert reaction to UK cases of coronavirus

One British man died after contracting the coronavirus that has apparently originated from the middle east. Two other members of his family have also caught the virus.

Short Q&A supplied by Prof Ian Jones, Professor of Virology at the University of Reading: 

What characteristics does this virus have?

“The virus is a coronavirus, which mostly cause respiratory and gastrointestinal infections.  The new virus appears to cause primarily respiratory infections, at least in man.  We do not yet know the exact origin of the virus or to what extent it might circulate in some parts of the world.” 

How does this one compare with other virus scares?

“It is related genetically to SARS but only distantly and the other known human coronaviruses cause only mild disease; so “SARS-like” is currently an overstatement in relation to spread and disease.  Like avian flu it may have the potential to spread more widely but not without acquiring multiple changes.  The current virus does not appear threatening.”    

What are the clues on how will it develop?

“The most likely outcome for the current infections is a dead end, that is, the virus will become extinct locally.  This is by far the most usual outcome for such zoonotic infections, infections that are normally restricted to animals but occasionally infect people.  Only if the virus adapts to the human body does the potential for more widespread infection arise.  There is no evidence for this type of spread so far.” 

What are scientists doing to track/predict its movements?

“HPA scientists have developed a test for the historical presence of the virus and will be able to ask if animals and humans from geographically diverse areas of the world have encountered this virus before.  This will provide some idea of the normal reservoir for this virus and so provide guidelines to reduce the risk of exposure.”

Should we be worried?

“Not at this stage.  The pattern so far is of an occasional zoonotic occurrence not an outbreak.  You have to remember that these patients were flown in to the UK for treatment, the virus was not encountered here.  The father to son transmission does not signify transmission on a wider scale.”