November 8, 2013

expert reaction to typhoon Haiyan

Typhoon Haiyan, the strongest recorded typhoon to make landfall, caused huge destruction in the Philippines.

Dr Norman Cheung, an expert in environmental hazards and disaster management at London’s Kingston University, said:

“Super Typhoon Haiyan is likely to be the most costly cyclone hazard ever experienced by the Philippines – both in terms of the devastation it has caused to parts of the country and the loss of human life. The total damage will probably exceed 10 billion US dollars. The death toll, currently being reported to be 1200, will almost certainly rise when the actual losses become clearer in the coming days. 

“Despite advanced satellite surveillance, accurate weather forecasts and the mass evacuation undertaken, the Philippines is still extremely vulnerable to typhoon hazards no matter how familiar the country is with them or how well prepared it is. 

“The major reasons for catastrophic losses are due to poor building materials and quality. Weak connections between roofs and walls expose the buildings to consistent extreme wind force. The marked change of internal and external pressure made them collapse completely.

“Although Haiyan is no longer classed as a super typhoon, it is still of major concern as it will bring an anticipated 10-16 inches of rain and further flooding caused by the storm surge along the coastal communities in Vietnam and South China.”

Ray Bell, a tropical storm expert from the University of Reading, said:

“Super Typhoon Haiyan really is a beast. It’s one of the strongest storms ever recorded, with sustained winds of 190 mph, gusting even higher. In comparison, St Jude, the recent UK storm, had sustained winds of 47mph and 63mph, gusting to 99 mph.

“As with hurricane Sandy, most damage will be from the storm surge – an increase in sea water level due to strong winds blowing the water onshore and a reduction in atmospheric pressure, which leads to less mass on top of the water.”

Julian Heming, Tropical Prediction Scientist at the Met Office, said:

“Typhoon Haiyan made landfall over Samar and Leyte Islands of the Philippines with an estimated central pressure of 895mb and sustained winds of near 195mph. If these figures are confirmed it will be one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever to make landfall.

“Haiyan is expected to cross the South China Sea and hit the northern parts of Vietnam on Sunday, but by then it is likely to be considerably weaker.

“Is typhoon Haiyan really the strongest to make landfall ever recorded, as some are claiming?  All we can say at this stage is that it maybe.  The estimates of wind strength and central pressure are just that – estimates – albeit from well attested satellite techniques developed over decades.  There will be a lot of post-storm analysis of this event to establish exactly how intense it was at landfall, but without ground observations right in the centre of the track we can never be totally sure.”