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expert reaction to today’s COVID-19 figures on cases and reported deaths

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) have announced the latest reported figures for cases (78,991) of and deaths (9,875) from COVID-19 in the UK.

 

 Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and Professor of Structural Biology, University of Oxford, said:

“Such a large number of deaths can never be thought of as good news, but a rise in numbers would have been worse. The volatility in the numbers and the delay from when they occur to when they are announced, make it very hard to be certain there is a trend. We will continue to see large numbers of deaths in the days ahead. Deaths lag infections by several weeks. If the growth of infections had been slowed by soft social distancing measures taken weeks ago then we might expect a slow down in the rate of increase in deaths. The strict lock down measures will take time to show in the number of announced deaths but we can be sure if we continue to follow these measures we will cut infections and thus deaths. 

“It is worth remembering that these are only deaths in hospital, sadly others will have died elsewhere. The number of people who actually die on each day, whether in hospital, care home or in community will be counted but it takes time for to compile these statistics.

“I note the IHME updated their forecasts yesterday for the U.K. and they have substantially lowered their worst case and central scenarios for deaths. The IHME are experts in modelling demand for medical services in the US and their predictions about demand for hospital beds and ventilators may have been useful to the NHS.

“The IHME are reputable scientists and always report a range for their predictions. They note that as more data become available, the range for their predictions will narrow. 

“It is therefore to be greatly regretted that too much online and media coverage of the earlier IHME predictions focussed on worst case scenarios without making absolutely clear the very large ranges that the IHME clearly stated for their U.K. predictions. When these ranges are deliberately omitted (or obscured) by others who then choose to focus on worst case scenarios, this is little more than reckless scaremongering.”

 

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading, said:

“The news of a further 917 COVID19 deaths is very sad, but unsurprising.  The fact that an 11-year-old was amongst the victims is particularly distressing.   Only two weeks ago we saw the UK pass the threshold of 1,000 total deaths and we can expect that number to breach 10,000 tomorrow.  It has become increasingly clear that younger people and those without underlying health conditions are at greater risk than had initially been expected, so it’s essential that people observe social distancing rules in order to start to halt the spread of the coronavirus.”

 

The Centre of Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford have assessed the data here: www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-11th-april/

 

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths

 

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

 

Declared interests

None received.

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