January 4, 2021

expert reaction to the UK variant and whether it’s responsible for the recent rise in infections

In a statement from no. 10 it was suggested that the new UK variant led to the rapid rise in infections.

Professor Lawrence Young, Virologist and Professor of Molecular Oncology at the Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, said:

“We do not have up-to-date data on the prevalence of the new variant across the country. Information from the recent report published by Imperial College indicates that the frequency of the B.1.1.7 variant rose rapidly through November to mid-December reaching 80% of infections in London, the South East & East of England and an estimated frequency of 15% in Yorkshire and the Humber. While levels of the variant virus were low in mid-December in many parts of England, rapid rises were beginning to appear in certain regions (e.g. Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Birmingham and Solihull) consistent with the conclusion that this new virus variant which is fuelling infections in the UK is more transmissible (infectious).

“The report also highlights that this variant is responsible for the increased levels of infection observed in individuals under 20 years old.  This suggests that the spread of this virus variant during a period of lockdown may have been driven by schools remaining open and by spread of the variant over the Christmas period. There is no indication at this point of increased disease severity associated with the new variant. It is unlikely that this new variant will impact vaccine effectiveness but this is currently being investigated by the PHE.”

Dr Jeff Barrett, director of the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said:

“It has become clear that the new variant is about 50% more transmissible, but it’s the combination of what the virus is doing and what we’re doing that determines how fast it spreads. With the new variant, the situation changes more quickly as restrictions are relaxed and tightened, and there is less room for error in controlling the spread. We don’t have any evidence, however, that the new variant can fundamentally evade masks, social distancing, or the other interventions – we just need to apply them more strictly.”

Dr Tom Wingfield, Senior Clinical Lecturer and Honorary Consultant Physician at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, said:

“There is not yet sufficient evidence to accurately inform estimates of the differential impact of the November national lockdown, December tier system, Christmas day relaxation of restriction measures, and the new SARS-CoV-2 variant on the current wave of Covid-19 in the UK. As a hospital doctor in Liverpool, I am also acutely aware that the spread of the coronavirus was rapid and damaging here and in other areas of northern England prior to the discovery of the new variant.

“Therefore, it is misplaced to cite the new variant as the sole – or even predominant – cause of the increase in cases, hospitalisations, and deaths from Covid-19 until we have more detailed evidence.

“Sadly, the NHS is currently – and yet again – at breaking point due to Covid-19. This is in addition to already heavy ‘standard’ winter pressures. It is clear that, in order to avoid prolonged crisis and an overwhelmed NHS, we need additional mitigation measures to those currently in place, which might include  – despite the harsh social and economic harms that it entails – a return to a national lockdown.”

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

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