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The government have released the latest figures for positive COVID-19 tests in the UK.
Dr Julian Tang, Honorary Associate Professor in Respiratory Sciences and Clinical Virologist, University of Leicester, said:
“This ongoing increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is not surprising due to its recent exponential growth and rising R number.
“What this means is that if there are more cases in the population at any one time, these will seed even more new cases (where R>1) in the next generation of cases – and the growth will continue.
“Without reducing the contact rate between the infecteds and susceptibles (which is still most of us), the virus will continue to spread.
“If people think the existing control measures are not working (and we don’t know if the number of cases might be even higher without them) then a decision needs to be made to impose stronger restrictions sooner rather than later (when the virus will be more difficult to control) – or that we somehow learn to live with the virus and just be prepared to deal with the impact of this.
“This is not an easy decision and unfortunately there is no decision that will be acceptable to everyone – as we have been learning so far in this pandemic.”
Dr Stephen Griffin, Associate Professor, School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said:
“Today we have seen another marked increase in the number of people testing positive for SARS-CoV2, more than 17.5K. Whilst this is based upon the date reported rather than the specimen date, the recent trend shows no sign that either of these numbers are likely to reduce in the foreseeable future. It is important to remember that these numbers serve as a mere indication of actual prevalence, especially given recent issues with providing, processing and tracing positive tests. The majority of cases are focused in certain areas predominantly in the North of England, including many cities with a high student population, yet cases are also increasing across the entire UK.
“The continued increase should serve as a warning to the government to take further action without delay. It is likely that our understanding of the now exponential spread of the virus is likely behind the actual rate of increase, and this ought to be considered when implementing restrictions. It is clear that the consequences of not suppressing infections sufficiently over the summer may be severe if we cannot get on top of this increase. To avoid the most dramatic measures will almost certainly require further societal restrictions in addition to existing mitigations, but most importantly the testing and tracing system, specifically the SERCO provided pillar 2, needs to be rendered fit for purpose with the utmost urgency.
“Lastly, again we are seeing significant numbers of hospitalisations and deaths, which must not be underestimated, including an increased number of younger people being admitted to hospital and intensive care in cities such as Manchester (https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-students-in-intensive-care-19068537). We can sadly expect to see numbers increasing proportionate to cases if we cannot curtail the increase in transmission.”
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
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www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
Dr Stephen Griffin: No conflicts
None others received