The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have updated their model of COVID-19 in the UK, for the second time.
Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and Professor of Structural Biology at the University of Oxford, said:
“It is beyond question that the UK will suffer a very high number of deaths in this first wave. Predicting the nature of the epidemic is important in guiding hospital planning, evaluating public health interventions and levelling with the public. COVID-19 is far from over – if we are to improve our response, we must draw the correct lessons from what has worked and failed here and what has worked and failed in other countries.
“On the 8th April, the IHME website gave a central prediction of about 60,000 deaths in the UK from COVID-19 by May 1st. The IHME made very clear on their website in simple graphs the full range of possible outcomes, from roughly 25,000 to 138,000 deaths by May 1st. As of 14th April, the central forecast is now roughly 23,000 by May 1st, with a range from roughly 14,000 to 50,000. This is the second significant update to the predictions for the UK since the 8th April.
“The IHME are high quality scientists who are explicit about the limitations and uncertainties in their models. I strongly support the publication of their models and ranges – “all models are wrong, and some are useful”. The IHME graphs are easily understood by anyone with any claim to scientific knowledge and the IHME models for the UK improve with more data – I hope media coverage of their models does too.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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