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On Saturday 14th March the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) for England, Prof Chris Whitty, confirmed there are now 1140 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and that 21 patients have died.
Dr Bharat Pankhania, Senior Clinical Lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School, said:
“It’s very sad to recognise that we now have 21 deaths in the UK. Most of them were over 60 and in “at risk” groups. The exponential rise in the number of cases we are expecting to see in the UK in the next few weeks implies that unfortunately we have to brace ourselves for more sad news.
“It’s imperative that all people, and especially those in the 60 plus age groups with existing medical conditions (at-risk groups), consider and undertake their own risk-assessment. Now is the time for them to keep a low profile whenever possible. That is, avoid crowded places, work from home, give your social life a little break, instead consider long walks in the countryside.
“Everyone also needs to remember to implement their own personal infection control strategy. As infection control does not come automatically to everyone, I suggest people make a timetable for regular and focused hand washing. Map out your daily routine and then introduce at intervals of every two hours a period of programmed hand washing, keep to the timetable and making it a strong habit. Wash and dry your hands with a focused mind, rather than semi absent-minded. Similarly, make the subconscious coughing and sneezing a very conscious act, into the tissue paper you cough or sneeze, immediately and safely discard the tissue paper, consider your hands contaminated and give them a good wash after each episode.
“With regard to the consideration of banning large gatherings, there’s evidence from Japan that indicates, if implemented very early on, it’s an effective measure in limiting the sharp surge in the number of new cases.
“As we enter the exponential phase, it’s important to keep numbers of new cases down. The only way to avoid a sudden and exponential rise in the number of cases is to do all we can as early as we can and to also take personal measures to not get infected and to remove from circulation cases which act as sources of transmission of infection.
“With regard to events with mass gatherings, It’s not just the event itself that contributes to the spread of infection, it’s also all the chain of activities leading up to the event itself. The little processes: for example taking the bus or train, going to pubs and restaurants before or afterwards, and travel home. All those little stages are also potential sources for new infections and are the weak links.
“It’s important to act as early as possible. Closing events and mass gatherings once the virus is in free mass circulation won’t achieve the desired result. The evidence suggests we are already entering the exponential rise in case numbers phase. Being optimistic, it may still be worth considering, but it has to be as a matter of urgency.”
Dr Stephen Griffin, Associate Professor, Leeds Institute of Medical Research, University of Leeds, said:
“The upsurge in daily cases this week could indicate that we’re at the beginning of the exponential phase of the UK epidemic. Unfortunately, I suspect we can expect to see further daily increases in both diagnostics and mortality over the coming weeks.
“We must ensure that the most vulnerable in our society are protected as much as possible as this unfolds. Elderly, immunosuppressed and/or people living with chronic health conditions are most at risk from SARS COV2 infections. Moreover, they are also potentially less able to cope with any period of self isolation or lockdown etc. The empty shelves I’ve witnessed in my local supermarket this afternoon signify an entirely unhelpful, selfish movement towards panic buying that can only adversely affect those most in need amongst the UK population.
“Whatever measures are implemented in the immediate term, they must accompany a dramatic increase in our ability to test for this virus. Moreover, in the interim before vaccines may be developed, we must hope that the ongoing drug trials might yield a candidate treatment for COVID19, and that pharmaceutical companies are both willing and able to increase output of potentially life saving medicines.”
Prof Azra Ghani, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, said:
“Interpreting daily reports of both cases and deaths as the epidemic unfolds requires a good understanding of where testing is taking place. In the UK, now that we are moving into the “delay” phase, testing of those with travel histories has ceased and now focuses on those admitted to hospital. In particular, in the last 7-10 days, testing has focused on patients in critical care – i.e. intensive care units and high-dependency units. As these patients have a range of underlying health conditions – and some may have been admitted for other reasons – we need to interpret these new numbers with this in mind. This should change in the coming 1-2 weeks as the new surveillance systems stabilise and all patients admitted to hospital for acute respiratory infections are tested.”
* https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19/
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