The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) have announced the latest reported figures for cases (114,217) of and deaths (15,464) from COVID-19 in the UK.
Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said:
“The number of announced deaths will remain at these high numbers for some time. I very much hope and expect that the 980 deaths on April 10 will have been the largest daily value we have had to mourn in this first wave. The losses in care homes are equally painful and will swell these already awful numbers but will not change our understanding of the peak. We know from the hospital admissions in London that social distancing will in time lead to much lower numbers of deaths. However this will take both time and continued adherence to social distancing.”
Prof Carl Heneghan and Dr Jason Oke, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, said:
“Consistent with previous analyses, the peak day of deaths in hospitals in England was the 8th of April (10 days ago). The structure of the data is similar across the regions, with the peak occurring in London on the 4th of April, four days ahead of the rest of the country (8th of April); see:
COVID-19 Death Data in England – Update 18th April
“The current community transmission of COVID is low and not at epidemic levels*. Data from the RCGP Surveillance centre shows that initial distancing measures (16th March), together with the seasonal effect, reduced transmission of URTIs by 9 per 10,000 (44%) from 20.4 to 11.4 per 10,000 consultations. The following week (22nd March), when the lockdown was introduced, rates of URTIs further decreased by 3.3 per 10,000 consultations (29%). (*An epidemic is declared if the rate of consultations for influenza-like symptoms in a sample of reporting by general practice exceeds 400 per 100,000 (or 40 per 10,000).)
“COVID cases were first detected in week 10 (8th March) in the RCGP surveillance data. Initial rates of 0.21 per 10,000 are 5 per 10,000 in the community; see:
What does RCGP surveillance tell us about COVID-19 in the community?
“Finally, we have been unable to access data on hospital admissions for COVID (as opposed to those infected and in hospital). Data on admissions could speed up the transition from lockdown. Denmark’s government, for example, has together with the rest of the parliament decided to speed up the opening of their society due to a greater decline – than expected – in hospitalisation of patient with COVID19 infection.”
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
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