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expert reaction to the latest COVID-19 Nowcast and Forecast, by the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge

The MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19.

 

Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said:

“Nowcasting has a good track record and today’s data lead to a similar downbeat conclusion as the ONS and REACT data. The prevalence of the virus in the UK remains high. The lockdown has initially driven down cases but this decrease has halted (when one considers England as a whole). With 86000 new infections very day (95 % CI 60000 to 124000) we will see thousands of deaths per week. My heart goes out to those who have and will lose a much loved friend or family member.  It is particularly awful to know death often occurs after isolation from loved ones.

“In a democracy, politicians take decisions not scientists. We quite rightly require our politicians to consider facts and to understand the consequences of their decisions. Were social restrictions to be ignored or removed with cases this high, we would quite quickly risk over filling hospitals. We just barely avoided this fate and the NHS remains highly stressed. I am enraged to hear people in the public eye or in prominent positions indulging in ludicrous conspiracy theories, magical thinking or dishonest sophistry.

“The vaccine campaign is making great progress and the stream of new vaccines is good news. We are not safe until everyone here in the UK and the wider world is safe. SARS-CoV-2 knows no boundary, neither should we in our campaign.”

 

 

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-29th-january-2021/

 

 

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

 

 

Declared interests

None received.

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