August 25, 2021

expert reaction to the 31st State of the Climate report

The American Meteorological Society has today published the 31^st State of the Climate report.

Dr Richard Cornes, Senior Research Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) which contributed to the report, said:

“With 2020 being the warmest non-El Nino year on record, this report highlights the importance of continued monitoring of temperature across global ocean regions. Observations of air temperature and humidity have declined from around 7,000 Voluntary Observing Ships in the 1980s to around 1,000 at present, severely endangering our monitoring ability.

“NOC scientists have also outlined in the report that uncertainty exists in relation to the differing trend in Marine Air Temperature and Sea-surface Temperature. Understanding the cause of this urgently requires further research. Increased and continued monitoring will enable us to better evaluate climate model simulations and hence predict future temperature increases.”

Prof Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health at University College London, said:

“The report’s data highlight heat as an immediate and concerning impact from human-caused climate change. The generally increasing temperatures are in line with the expectations of a warming world, meaning that we must be ready for lethal heat-humidity combinations. As temperatures continue to rise, outdoor work such as construction and agriculture will be inhibited, impacting key industries and supplies. Even people who can afford 24/7 indoor cooling are vulnerable, since power outages are likely as more people turn to artificial cooling more frequently.

“Regarding rainfall, no matter how averages vary, many storms will probably be more intense, but we should be more concerned about more people living in floodplains without taking adequate measures. As we saw with the horrific European floods in July, even with clear rainfall warnings, many people are not aware of the devastation that water can bring to our doorstep. We have plenty to do to prepare ourselves and our infrastructure for any flood, whether or not influenced by climate change.”

Dr Ella Gilbert, Post-doctoral research assistant at the University of Reading, said:

“Here we have another report that echoes the findings of others released in recent weeks and months. It offers yet more evidence that the climate is changing fast, with dire consequences for people living across the world.

“No corner of Earth is untouched by these changes – with temperature records smashed at both poles, driving record ice melt and glacier retreat; and persistent, ongoing change to global temperatures, rainfall and extreme weather.

“This report shows that despite the enormous impact of COVID-19 worldwide, climate change has continued apace; demonstrating the scale of the problem we still have to tackle.”

Prof Gabi Hegerl, Professor of Climate System Science, University of Edinburgh, said:

“The amount by which the previous record has been exceeded should worry us all. European temperatures are well measured and can be tracked back to the beginning of industrialization and beyond, using documentary evidence and proxy records. This long-term context emphasises how unusual this warmth is.”

Prof Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said:

“Our heating of the global climate is now having very clear impacts, making heavy rain and drought more likely or severe in many parts of the world, and increasing the risks of flooding and wildfire. These weather hazards will continue to increase if we keep adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels and deforestation.”

Prof William Collins, Professor of Meteorology at the University of Reading, said:

“This report confirms the recent IPCC assessment that climate change is happening here and now and is not just an issue for the future. Temperature records in Europe will continue to be broken unless we make rapid and sustained reductions in global emissions of greenhouse gases so that we balance output and uptake of carbon dioxide by the middle of the century.”

Dr Michael Byrne, Lecturer in Climate Science at the University of St Andrews, said:

“We know the climate is warming. So it is no surprise that Europe experienced its hottest-ever year in 2020. But what is surprising is the pace of warming – a rise of 1.9C compared to 1981-2010 is rapid, unprecedented and worrying.

“The report highlights that even if we limit global warming to 1.5C as set out in the Paris Agreement, temperature increases in many parts of the world – and particularly over land – will far exceed 1.5C.”

Declared interests

Prof Richard Betts: “I am not directly involved in the report myself but my colleagues at the Met Office have leading roles in it.”

Prof William Collins: “nothing to declare.”

None others received