July 5, 2025

expert reaction to Texas floods

Scientists comment on the flooding in Texas.

Dr Leslie Mabon, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Systems, The Open University, said:

“This is a very complex and tragic situation, and it will take time to understand what the factors were that contributed to so many lives being lost.  However, the Texas floods point to two issues.  One is that there’s no such thing as a natural disaster, and one area that disaster experts will be probing is what warnings were given, and when.  The second is that the pace and scale of climate change means extreme events can and do exceed what our infrastructure and built environment is able to cope with.  Both of these points can be true at the same time.  What is vital is that we plan, staff and resource monitoring networks, defences and contingency plans for extremes that can exceed what we’ve experienced to date.”

Prof Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University, said:

“The devastating flooding in Texas yet again underlines the need for better early warning systems for these very intense storms with rapidly evolving flash flooding.  Several of these events have caused significant loss of life over the last few years, and with climate warming we can expect more of these very intense, highly organised, storms.  The warmer atmosphere and oceans fuel these storms, making them last longer, with more rainfall.  As a society we are going to have to adapt to more of these events.  We will need to learn how to respond to warnings, and how to safely evacuate before the flash flood.  It will not be possible to make all of our infrastructure resilient to these catastrophically large floods, and we can expect to experience many more of these.”

Dr Martina Egedusevic, Impact Fellow in Green Futures, University of Exeter, said:

“The devastating floods in Texas are a stark reminder of how intensifying extreme weather events driven by climate change are interacting with land-use change, urbanisation, and aging infrastructure to produce severe impacts.  While individual flood events are influenced by multiple factors, we know that warmer air holds more moisture, increasing the likelihood of intense rainfall.  In many urban areas like those affected in Texas, impervious surfaces prevent water absorption, overwhelming drainage systems and exacerbating flash flooding.

“This underlines the importance of not only improving forecasting and emergency response but also investing in long-term, systemic approaches to flood resilience.  Nature-based solutions such as wetland restoration, reforestation, and sustainable urban drainage systems can complement engineering infrastructure by slowing runoff and increasing infiltration.  As our research in the UK and internationally shows, working with nature can help mitigate the worst effects of flooding while delivering co-benefits for biodiversity, air quality, and climate adaptation.

“However, each region has its own hydrological and social context, so local knowledge and inclusive planning are essential.  Understanding where and why such flood events happen also means tackling the underlying vulnerabilities like poorly planned development, socio-economic inequalities, and environmental degradation.”

Prof Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical & Climate Hazards, UCL, said:

“The tragic events in Texas are exactly what we would expect in our hotter, climate-changed, world.  There has been an explosion in extreme weather in recent years, including more devastating flash floods caused by slow-moving, wetter, storms, that dump exceptional amounts of rain over small areas across a short time.  This frequently overwhelms river catchments leading to severe damage to adjacent infrastructure and loss of life.  Such events will only become more commonplace as the global temperature continues to climb, driven by carbon dioxide emissions that still top 40 billion tonnes every year.”

Dr Jess Neumann, University of Reading, said:

“The devastating floods of Kerr County in Texas is a tragic reminder of the dangers of sudden extreme rainfall and flash flooding.

“Flash floods are not uncommon in the Hill Country area of Texas, where the weather is easily influenced by a ready supply of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.  When very heavy rain falls on steep hillsides, this can create the conditions for raging torrents to be created in previously dry river beds, in just a matter of hours.

“Totals of 200mm (around 8 inches) of rainfall were originally forecast, which is a significant amount in any location.  In places, this is expected to have reached more than 12 inches of rain.  For context, in the UK, 50mm of rain a day is considered heavy rainfall with serious potential for flooding.

“This terrible event, in which children are missing and many have died, raises critical questions about effective early warning systems, flood planning and preparedness in the region.

“It cannot be right that a flood of this magnitude, in an area known to be at high risk of flash floods, caused such devastation and has taken so many people by surprise.”

Prof Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, said: 

“For so many children to be swept away in a flood is an almost unimaginable horror.  Sadly, it can be the inability to see such a tragedy emerging that can be part of the failure of an early warning system for floods.  An alert system is a chain of human communication, and if one person in any part of the chain doesn’t respond as they should to take action, the system runs the risk of failure.  Human communication about events that have not yet occurred requires the use of imagination, and a lack of imagination can be lethal.

“This downpour seems to have been well forecasted by multiple forecasters around the world, several hours in advance.  Warnings were issued, but the systems do not seem to have been in place to get information to those in harm’s way fast enough.  The timing of the flood, which happened in the middle of the night, would have meant that any last-minute actions to get out of the way of the water would have been hampered by darkness.

“It is not good enough for authorities to say they were not aware that floods were coming.  Warnings were available but the message just didn’t get through.  This must be a reminder of the need to invest more effort in checking every aspect of early warning systems, from the science, to the communications, to the education required to spread more understanding of the risks and how to respond to them.”

“Once again, we are left horrified and humbled by the dreadful power of the weather and the ability of our rivers to take lives.”

Declared interests

Dr Leslie Mabon: “Leslie Mabon is an Ambassador for Scotland’s National Centre for Resilience.  This is a voluntary position, committed to ensuring that government, industry and society are able to make decisions about resilience that are informed by the best available evidence.”

Prof Bill McGuire: “No conflicts of interest.”

Dr Jess Neumann: “I am a trustee of the Charity River Mole River Watch.  We work with water companies including SES Water and the Environment Agency.  We receive funding for research from local Government, NGO’s and private business / industry.  No other conflicts of interest to declare.”

Prof Hannah Cloke: “Works with and advises the Met Office, ECMWF and Environment Agency.”

For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.