July 10, 2025

expert reaction to study of projections of heat deaths in England and Wales under difference climate scenarios

A study in PLOS Climate looks at projections of future heat deaths in England and Wales given different climate scenarios. 

Dr Raquel Nunes, Assistant Professor in Health and Environment at the University of Warwick, said:

“The study highlights the importance of mitigation and adaptation for future heat-health outcomes. While it presents valuable future projections, it relies on pre-defined assumptions and scenarios, largely omitting the urgent need to transition from reactive to anticipatory strategies.

“The forecast of a third consecutive UK heatwave so far this summer – and the increasing frequency, intensity and duration of such events – underscores the urgent need to shift from reactive to anticipatory strategies. Heat-related deaths and illnesses are both preventable and avoidable, yet they expose systemic failures and highlight the need for socially inclusive and institutionally embedded adaptation across governance, infrastructure, and health and care services to prevent increasing vulnerabilities and inequalities.”

Dr Akshay Deoras, Research Scientist at the University of Reading, said:

“If floods and storms are the loud alarms of climate change, extreme heat is its silent killer. It is disproportionately lethal, often going unnoticed until it’s too late. With another heatwave bearing down on the UK, this warning feels more urgent than ever.

“This new comprehensive study makes the threat clear. It analyses heat-related mortality across fifteen plausible combinations of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, capturing a wide range of possible futures for England and Wales. It simultaneously accounts for climate change, population growth and ageing, and adaptive capacity. This multi-driver approach avoids the underestimation of future health burdens that can occur when only one driver is considered.

“The results show that heat is not only claiming more lives, but that power outages and an aging population could make things far worse if adaptation doesn’t keep pace. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, heat-related deaths are set to rise sharply by mid-century. One of the limitations of the study is that temperature exposure is assigned at the regional level using population-weighted averages, which may not fully reflect local microclimates, potentially masking local hotspots of risk.

“To save lives, we must cut greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen adaptation strategies at the same time. Crucially, the study highlights the power of natural, passive cooling techniques, such as shutters, shading, and cool roofs, which work even when the electricity fails. These solutions not only protect people but also avoid the trap of relying on air conditioning, which drives further global warming. As the UK experiences fewer cold extremes and more frequent and deadly heatwaves, protecting older adults must be at the heart of climate and public health planning—before this silent threat becomes an undeniable crisis.”

Prof Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading, said:

“Warming of the climate is making heatwaves more severe and dangerous. The new study paints a concerning picture of the future in which a greater intensity of summer heat compounds with an ageing, more vulnerable population to increase the risk of death. 

“The research finds danger to people from persistent heat diminishes in scenarios involving deeper cuts in climate warming greenhouse gases but remain concerningly large, meaning that adaptation of our infrastructure and culture is also needed as well as rapidly transitioning to a low carbon society. 

“The study also notes a concurrent reduction in mortality from cold extremes and may underestimate the adaptive measures that could be adopted in response to hot conditions but underscores the importance of avoiding the worst case storylines by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving our resilience to worsening weather extremes.”

‘Projections of heat related mortality under combined climate and socioeconomic adaptation scenarios for England and Wales’ by Rebecca Cole et al. was published in PLOS Climate at 7pm UK time on Thursday 10 July 2025.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000553

Declared interests

Richard Allan: “No conflicting interests”

Dr Akshay Deoras: “I receive funding from UKRI and DSIT/Met Office.”

Raquel Nunes: “No conflicts of interest”