June 24, 2021

expert reaction to study estimating when the first COVID-19 case occurred in China

A study published in PLOS Pathogens uses modelling to suggest when the first case of COVID-19 might have arisen.

Prof David Robertson, Head of Viral Genomics and Bioinformatics, MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research (CVR), University of Glasgow, said:

“Robert and colleagues’ method from ecological modelling is giving similar timings for the first human to human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that were published in Science last year (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6540/412).  The Science paper’s analysis uses genome sequence data and it states “This analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November of 2019 in Hubei Province, China, with a likely short interval before epidemic transmission was initiated”.  So while there is nothing very new in the PLoS Pathogens paper the ecological model Robert and colleagues use corroborates this sophisticated evolutionary analysis, which would tend to suggest Robert et al’s method is reasonable.”

Prof Ben Neuman, Chair of Biological Sciences at Texas A&M University-Texarkana, said:

“This study is one of many attempts to pinpoint the origin time and country for SARS-CoV-2 based on when cases appeared in various countries.  This study is more remarkable for the application of an unusual mathematical model to the limited data on early cases of COVID-19, than for its conclusions, which are roughly in line with those of other studies that focused on the accumulation of mutations in the virus genome.  It looks as though any way you slice it, the first case was around November, somewhere in China.  This study does not pinpoint the location of the first case within China, or identify any previous hosts of SARS-CoV-2-like progenitor viruses.  To answer those questions, we certainly need more genetic data on similar viruses, wherever they may be found.”

‘Dating first cases of COVID-19’ by David L. Roberts et al. was published in PLOS Pathogens at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 24 June 2021.

DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009620

Declared interests

None received.