select search filters
briefings
roundups & rapid reactions
before the headlines
Fiona fox's blog
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 30 April 2021.
Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Provisional counts for COVID-mention deaths by date of occurrence are key data.
“Projecting forward a few weeks, it appeared likely that England & Wales will experience 86,000 (nearest 1000) COVID-mention deaths by the time that the weekly count of COVID-mention deaths is fewer than 1/50th of the peak count in Wave 2 of 8945 COVID-mention deaths. If so, then very sadly Wave 2 will have claimed 65% more lives than Wave 1.
“Wave 1 peak count was 8,348 COVID-mention deaths and it took 15 weeks until the Wave 1 weekly count dropped below 1/50th of Wave 1’s peak-count (i.e. below 167). Wave 2 is likely to achieve the corresponding goal in fewer than 15 weeks, but by one week only (i.e. in week ended 30 April 2021).
“My table shows COVID-mention deaths in England & Wales (by week of occurrence) in Wave 1 from early September 2020 to mid-April 2021. I use both a) the pattern of registration-delays and b) fortnightly rates of change in the occurrence of COVID-mention deaths to estimate likely totals for COVID-mention deaths in the most recent weeks of occurrence.
“In England and Wales, not all deaths which occurred in the week ending 30 April 2021 have yet been registered. Taking registration delay into account, we can expect that 120 COVID-mention deaths may have occurred in England & Wales in the week ended 30 April 2021, see Table. Fortnightly rates have long since switched from increasing to decreasing (most recent yellow; most recent turquoise).
“Expectation is that the Wave 2’s death-toll (that is: until COVID-mention deaths per week are below 1/50th of peak-occurrence-week) will be 72% higher in England & Wales at 90,000 (nearest 100) than the toll of COVID-mention deaths in Wave 1 (52,250).
“The corresponding Wave 2 estimate for Scotland (to nearest 50) versus 4,200 in Wave 1 will be available tomorrow but the increase in Wave 2 versus Wave 1 is expected to be well below 50%.”
Wave 1 to 31 July 2020 = 52,248 or 52,250 (nearest 50); there follows 5-week inter-regnum = 551
Wave 2: 5 Sept to 30 April 2021 = 89,814 (@ 11 May).
Wave 2 expectation is 90,000 (nearest 100) COVID-mention deaths until weekly count is below 1/50th peak count of COVID-mention deaths (180).
Hence, Wave 2 expectation is 72% higher death toll in England & Wales than in Wave 1.
Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, The Open University, said:
“The latest ONS provisional data on death registrations takes the information up to the week ending on 30 April – just before the early May bank holiday so that wouldn’t have had an effect on the numbers. Again, it’s pretty well entirely good news. Total registered deaths are down compared to the previous week in England and Wales taken together, in England and in Wales separately, in six of the nine English regions, and in almost all age groups. Deaths from all causes were below the five-year average for 2015-2019 in England and Wales taken together, in both countries separately, and in every English region. ONS also report that deaths were below the five-year average in the UK as a whole, and in Scotland and in Northern Ireland. Deaths in hospitals and care homes in England and Wales are also below the five-year average – though not deaths in people’s own homes, which are still running at about 100 a day above average and are very predominantly not due to Covid-19.
“Deaths where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate were also generally down in the most recent week compared to the week before. Indeed the number for England and Wales fell by just over a fifth in a week. These Covid-related deaths fell in England and in Wales separately, in most of the English regions, and in all age groups older than 45. It doesn’t concern me that there were increases in three English regions (North East, East Midlands, South West), because when the numbers get as small as they now are, you’d expect a few fluctuations like that just by chance. And the numbers of deaths involving Covid-19 in younger people is so small now that small-scale fluctuations, either up or down, are inevitable. In the latest week, the total number of deaths involving Covid-19 in all the ages groups under 45 was just 9, including just one person aged under 30. That’s very sad, of course, for the friends and relatives of those who died, but compared to the 60 million population of England and Wales it’s a very small number, and though it’s higher than the previous week’s count of 4 deaths, that’s not important at a national level. In the same week, the number of deaths involving Covid-19 in people aged 50 and over was 193, down by nearly a quarter from 251 the previous week.
“I should point out, though, that the registered number of deaths involving Covid-19 in the most recent week, 205, is still higher than it was every week from 25 July to 18 September last year, indeed double the number of the lowest weeks last summer. So we’re getting there, but we’re not there yet. Also, the latest week of data, ending 30 April, is still a bit too early to pick up any effect of the loosening in lockdown in England on 12 April. I wouldn’t in fact expect an upturn in deaths because of that, because other data (from counts of new cases and the ONS infection survey) don’t show any sign of increasing infections. However, things might change after the final two stages of the roadmap in England, next Monday (17 May) and 21 June, and modelling results released by SAGE yesterday do suggest that there will be a fairly small extra wave of illness and, sadly, deaths in late summer or early autumn. The models do not predict numbers of deaths anywhere near what we saw in the previous waves, though there’s a lot of uncertainty depending on how much people change their behaviour and on other matters such as new virus variants.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
Prof Kevin McConway: “I am a Trustee of the SMC and a member of its Advisory Committee. I am also a member of the Public Data Advisory Group, which provides expert advice to the Cabinet Office on aspects of public understanding of data during the pandemic. My quote above is in my capacity as an independent professional statistician.”
None others received.