March 2, 2020

expert reaction to new UK cases of COVID-19

A further 12 UK cases of COVID-19 were confirmed by England’s Chief Medical Officer (CMO), Prof Chris Whitty, over the weekend.

Dr Stephen Griffin, Associate Professor Section of Infection & Immunity, University of Leeds, said:

“The new cases identified today may seem like an alarming increase to many in relation to the numbers seen previously. However, this should be taken in context. Encouragingly, the vast majority of the cases identified have been linked to either travel within areas currently experiencing community spread of the virus, or to the individual from Surrey identified on Friday. This means that any immediate spread of the virus should be contained by contact tracing, as previously. 

“What is perhaps more concerning is that at least two cases of the virus, from Surrey and Essex, have no history of travelling outside of the UK, making it reasonable to assume that at least one infected person is, or was, present in the country, about whom we know nothing. The next few days may provide clues as to the extent of this unidentified infected population, as we might expect to see more unexplained cases that must have resulted from community spread. However, it is also possible that transmission has been limited and no further infections might occur. Only time will tell, unless these persons are able to be identified. 

“As for whether we are about to see exponential spread of the virus, it is too early to tell. Again, as the majority of the new cases were imported, this will depend upon whether further cases of community acquired infection come to light. Until this happens, whilst there is cause for concern, there is no need to panic – we are still talking about a handful of cases amongst a population of more than 60 million. 

“Nevertheless, it is right that the government, NHS and PHE are putting plans in place to prepare for a worst case scenario; we still know comparatively little about this virus. It is easy to be placated by figures such as 80% of cases being mild etc, yet we have a considerable proportion of our population over retirement age, many patients suffering from COPD, asthma or other respiratory disorders, as well as significant numbers receiving immunosuppressive therapy for autoimmune conditions, as transplant recipients or for other reasons. Moreover, it is simply not true that younger people are not going to experience complex disease, it is just considerably less likely. 

“It is critical that the NHS receives the investment and support necessary to adapt to a potential epidemic, including the necessary training and equipment to ensure that health care providers are able to supply necessary care whilst remaining safe from exposure to infection.”

Prof Andrew Tatem, Professor within Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, said:

“We’ve reached a stage now where China’s major efforts to stop the outbreak within its borders have meant that it likely has stronger coronavirus surveillance and detection capabilities than anywhere else in the world. The fact that China is now detecting and reporting imported cases that are coming from Iran and the UK is an indication of how the geographical balance of this outbreak is shifting as we seemingly move towards a global pandemic.”

Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, University of East Anglia (UEA), said:

“The recent sharp increase in the number of reported cases in the UK is a reminder, if any were needed, that we are moving into the next stage of the epidemic. The recent sharp increases in the number of new cases in Italy and then France, Spain and Germany confirm that COVID-19 is spreading in Europe. As yet the number of cases in the UK who have no relevant travel history remains small but even a couple of such cases indicates community spread here. The current containment strategy is still appropriate for now but we can expect to see further increases in the next few days and consequently the UK’s response will move more towards the next phase of delaying rather than containing infections. Although it may still be possible to prevent a community wide epidemic this is looking increasingly unlikely and we should be prepared to cope with a more widespread epidemic on our shores.” 

Prof David Heymann, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said:

“The recommendations of the World Health Organization remain to contain outbreaks where possible and feasible, and to prepare for more widespread community spread should it occur.  The UK is following these measures.” 

Prof Keith Neal, Emeritus professor of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Nottingham, said:

“None of this is particularly surprising.  We know there are a lot of cases in Italy and Iran.  A second case without know contact shows that the current surveillance for cases without a travel history or a history of close contact is working.  It also suggests that COVID-19 may have more cases with mild or no symptoms than the Chinese data suggests”

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1234110794687819777

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

The SMC also produced a Factsheet on COVID-19 which is available here:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/smc-novel-coronavirus-factsheet/

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