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There have been multiple new cases of COVID-19 confirmed in the UK.
Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham, said:
“Looking at what is happening in many parts of the world – Italy, Iran and South Korea for example – we should get used to the fact that there will be increasing numbers of coronavirus infections detected here in the UK. Currently, these can be linked back to travel to a badly affected area, but it is very likely, if not a certainty, that virus will come here under the radar and start to transmit. That’s why the PHE have set-up more widespread surveillance so that we can get a good idea if the virus is here and, if so, how much and where. This knowledge will enable us to respond in the most appropriate way to slow its spread to try to give the NHS chance to cope with any demand on its resources.
“We can all play our part in slowing its spread by being more vigilant about personal hygiene. This is the most effective way to slow the spread of many winter viruses. So, if you’ve been to one of the badly affected areas listed on the government website* in the last 14 days, self-isolate and call 111. Even if you haven’t travelled anywhere but you have symptoms of a cold or flu, then sneeze or cough into a tissue or the crook of your sleeve. Finally, never touch your eyes, nose or mouth unless you’ve cleaned your hands using soap and water or, if you can’t get to a sink, using a hand cleaning gel. This is a virus that is most likely going to end up on your fingers and thumbs or the palms of your hands, so make sure at least these parts of your hands are thoroughly cleaned.”
*https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
Dr Al Edwards, School of Pharmacy, University of Reading, said:
“It’s not surprising that we continue to see new cases coming to the UK from affected areas, and this illustrates the importance of following advice on reporting any symptoms if travelling back from any of the areas highlighted by government advice. These will be managed safely if people are quick to report and seek support from the NHS through established mechanisms.
“To understand what a UK outbreak might look like it’s worth considering the situation in Italy, and the control measures that are being put in place in various countries across the globe. Travel and schools can be affected for example, to delay and contain spread.
“People should not panic, and most importantly people should follow public health advice. However, it’s also vital that people don’t ignore the seriousness of the situation and do consider how this might affect you.
“The best way to respond is like other global events- think ahead and just double-check how your plans for the next few months might change. A simple example is for people with travel booked in the next few weeks/months. I myself just booked a business trip to Europe at the start of April- and I did so with a full understanding that it might be cancelled if the places I intend visiting become closed down for containment reasons. Equally, if I didn’t book this trip I would miss valuable opportunities. Likewise, support your local community where you can. If your school is affected (e.g. if a member of your community returns or visits from an affected area), try to support them in making extremely difficult decisions.
“It’s really important that we understand the personal impact of this outbreak- currently around one in six people who contract COVID-19 are getting very ill and tragically a significant number people have died from this infection around the world, including 17 in Italy. The pressures on healthcare professionals are intense and we should make every effort to help and support public health efforts.
“We should also be respectful to those who have this disease – it’s not fair to dismiss this as ‘just flu’ and there is a significant understanding gap about the outbreak leading to fear and prejudice. We are so lucky to live in safe, healthy environment largely free from infection, and we often forget how important and brilliant public health systems are- now is the time to support public health experts and follow their expert advice.
“Are we making a big deal out of nothing? No. Many people might feel the media is making news out of the situation for the sake of news. This is not a fair criticism. The outbreak is unprecedented in recent decades, and the virus remains poorly understood making it hard to know how to respond. Furthermore, the situation is changing extremely rapidly. We have gone from ~20 cases to >600 identified in Italy in the last week, transforming the situation from a China/Asia problem to a local concern in just seven days. Again, this justifies consideration and awareness. Yet Italy will rapidly reduce the rate of infection using control measures.”
Dr Thomas House, Reader in Mathematical Statistics, University of Manchester, said:
“People find it very difficult to gauge risks in general, and often like to be in a position where either they ignore something or pay large amounts of attention to it. For the case of COVID-19, neither approach is really correct. The disease is likely to be a serious health concern across the world for some weeks, but not to the exclusion of other issues. Rather than worry, which is not productive, people might like to think constructively about how they might be able to contribute to efforts to reduce transmission through improved hygiene, avoiding inessential meetings etc. in the event of a large epidemic. They might also like to make clear that they support efforts from the healthcare system to mitigate against the disease. Focusing on the exact numbers and features of new cases on a daily basis is probably not helpful for most people and is only helpful to specialists because we look for overall patterns in aggregate data that may help us to predict.”
Dr Bharat Pankhania, Senior Clinical Lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School, said:
“It’s no surprise that the first case of covid-19 has arrived in Wales. We expect cases to arise in different parts of the country and the world, and they won’t necessarily be connected with China. They may be secondary cases, generated elsewhere. So far, the UK has been successful in our containment policy, and also fortunate in that as far as we are aware, no new cases have come into the country from an area of the world that’s not under surveillance and screening.”
Prof Keith Neal, Emeritus professor of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Nottingham, said:
“Not unexpected given the scale of the epidemic in Iran and the strategy for identifying potential cases appears to be working well. The threat level remains unchanged.”
* England Cases – https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-for-england-announces-2-new-cases-of-novel-coronavirus-28-february-2020
*Wales case – https://gov.wales/wales-confirms-first-positive-case-coronavirus-covid-19
* Northern Ireland case – https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/testing-patient-northern-ireland-has-resulted-presumptive-positive-test-coronavirus-covid-19
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
The SMC also produced a Factsheet on COVID-19 which is available here:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/smc-novel-coronavirus-factsheet/
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