April 30, 2009

expert reaction to new research suggesting global warming is unlikely to remain below 2C without tight limits on CO2 emissions, as published in Nature

Two analyses published in Nature suggest that global CO2 emissions are driving global warming inexorably toward 2C, and that current emissions limits are insufficient to prevent this.

Professor John Burrows, director of Biogeochemistry Programme at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, said:

“The two new analyses published today in Nature conclude that the risk of dangerous climate change is primarily determined by the accumulation of carbon dioxide emissions over time, not by short-term emission rates. Building this conclusion into climate policy requires a fundamental shift from the current emphasis on emission-rate or concentration targets, to new policies based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide. Limiting emissions in this way will be an exceptionally challenging task requiring strong scientific support with a particular focus required on gaining an increased understanding of the global carbon cycle.”

Dr Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office, said:

“Even with drastic cuts in emissions in the next 10 years, our results project that there will only be around a 50% chance of keeping global temperatures rises below 2°C.

“This idealised emissions scenario is based on emissions peaking in 2015 and quickly changing from an increase of 2–3% per year to a decrease of 3% per year. For every 10 years we delay action another 0.5°C will be added to the most likely temperature rise.”