June 8, 2016

expert reaction to new NSIDC snow and ice data

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has released a report which states: “Daily Arctic sea ice extents for May 2016 tracked two to four weeks ahead of levels seen in 2012, which had the lowest September extent in the satellite record.”

Dr Finlo Cottier, Senior Lecturer in Polar Oceanography at the Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS), said:

“This early break-up of the Arctic sea ice is likely caused by the late formation of sea ice in winter, a result of elevated temperatures in the ocean and the air the previous autumn, leading to thinner ice that can break up more easily.

“The results also highlight the increasing significance of wind in deforming and breaking the sea ice cover.

“The satellite data on thickness can be confirmed with measurements from the ice itself to establish the role of air and water on melt rates. SAMS has been developing and deploying sensors that measure ice and snow thickness remotely, and send live data via satellite link.  Through Norwegian collaborations, we’re developing new sensor arrays that will help us understand how light and biology are affected by thinning ice and changing snow cover.”

Prof. Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science at UCL, said:

“Temperatures in the Arctic over the last winter have been running as much as 10C above the 1981 – 2010 average and are still 2-3C higher. For a short period in December sea ice at the North pole was at or close to melting, with temperatures at least 20C above normal.

“Not surprisingly, the Arctic ice and snow cover are responding with record low extents. The current rate of sea ice loss, and the reduced thickness of large areas of the ice remaining, suggest that we may see yet another record minimum in Summer sea ice extent this year.

“The impacts on the Arctic ocean and land systems are transformational, creating huge problems for the circum-Arctic peoples who, on the basis of their traditional knowledge, confirm that the high latitude climate system has already shifted well outside the bounds they have previously experienced. The situation is important for us, as the reduced temperature gradient between the equator and the north pole is changing the circulation patterns and behaviours of the atmosphere and oceans, contributing to our direct experience of climate disruption.

“It’s worth pointing out that, despite continuing claims made by climate deniers to the contrary, Antarctic sea ice has been trending at or near average to below average levels since June 2015.”

Prof. Jonathan Bamber, Director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre at the University of Bristol, said:

“We have already seen an unusually early start to melting around the margins of Greenland in 2016 and the new findings from NSIDC of exceptionally low sea ice extent for May and the lowest Northern Hemisphere snow cover in April for 50 years is in line with the longer term, decadal, trends for the Arctic as a whole.

“The region is undergoing warming at around twice the global average and the ice is responding accordingly.”

Prof. Martyn Tranter, Professor of Polar Biogeochemistry at the Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, said:

“These data are consistent with the notion that cryospheric environments are fragile in a warming climate. Ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice expand and contract in response to a range of factors, which include not only average global temperatures, but confounding factors, such as meteorological circulation patterns which vary by season and year.

“Circulation patterns affect regional wind fields and the timing and patterning of snow fall and melting, as some of these data suggest. We all hope that the cryosphere remains robust in a warming climate, but results such as these point to reduced ice volumes on land and sea during the coming decades.”

* http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/06/low-ice-low-snow-both-poles/