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Official advice for UK travellers who have returned from Wuhan in the last 14 days is to ‘self-isolate’.
Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham, said:
“Given the scale of the problem in China, it was clear that the UK authorities had to raise their preparedness. Although there are still many questions that remain about how widespread or how this virus is transmitting in China, it is becoming clear that identifying people infected with this novel Coronavirus is challenging – far more so than with either SARS or MERS. Emerging data suggests that the incubation period of the virus can be up to 14 days and during this time infected people might be able to transmit virus without even knowing that they are infected. This is why the self-isolation period is 14 days.
“Some people might argue for more proactive screening of people who have visited China, especially at airports, but this would not identify people infected who are not showing symptoms, especially given the relatively long incubation period. It is possible to test for the presence of virus, in things like sputum or throat swabs, but this would present logistical problems, given the large number of travellers returning from China, especially as the test would need to be performed throughout the danger period.
“The only saving feature in all of this is that the infection appears not to be anywhere near as deadly as SARS or MERS, although it’s this ability to cause asymptomatic or mild disease that is no doubt helping the virus spread.”
Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, The Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, said:
Should British citizens evacuate quarantined areas in Wuhan?
“I do not think this is necessarily an infectious disease issue. The risk of acquiring the infection even in an individual living in Wuhan is still low. The risk of getting severe disease even if infected is also low if someone is below 65 years old and otherwise well. On the other hand, the impact of living in a quarantine environment, miles away from home, can itself be damaging to an individual’s mental health and a source of great anxiety to family members back in the UK. For this latter reason people may wish to be repatriated.
Are there any risks of bringing these individuals back to the UK having been in the quarantined areas?
“Given the number of cases reported so far and the total population of the affected cities the probability of any given individual expat being infected on the return home is very low. However, the risk that one or more returnees will be infected with the virus increases the more people are repatriated. So repatriation would carry a small increased risk of importing the infection into the UK but this is unlikely to be great when compared to the risk from all other travelers.
“As reiterated by the World Health Organization today in its live web broadcast the main risk of spreading the infection is still from people who are symptomatic. Given the current size of the outbreak it is quite likely that we will see cases in people coming to our shores whether or not we undertake a mass repatriation. Any risks to people in the UK whether from a repatriation of expats or in other travellers are controlled in exactly the same way. The latest advice from the Department of Health to self-isolate for 14 days after returning and contact NHS 111 if they develop fever, cough and or difficulty in breathing means any risk to others should be minimal.”
* https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-information-for-the-public
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/fco-statement-british-nationals-in-hubei-province
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/wuhan-coronavirus/
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