July 24, 2020

expert reaction to latest R number and growth rates estimates

The government have released the latest estimated values for the COVID-19 R number for the UK and regionally. 

Dr Yuliya Kyrychko, Reader in Mathematics, University of Sussex, said:

“It is very reassuring to see the R number estimates to be below or equal to one in all regions.

“At the same time, the fact that it is so close to one, and that the growth rates in the East of England and the South West are estimated to be up to +2% suggests that it is very important to stay vigilant and continue with monitoring and efficient tracking of suspected cases to avoid a possibility of overlooking an outbreak.

“Recent examples from the UK and overseas show that once the restrictions are lifted, it may take some time for infections to pick up again, hence, particular care should be taken with interpreting the data, and collecting and analysing it quickly and at a local level.”

Dr Konstantin Blyuss, Reader in Mathematics, University of Sussex, said:

“Since the overall numbers of new infections are rather small now, this adds uncertainty to estimates of R number, and this can provide a false sense of security both to a wider population, and to local councils making decisions about strategy for disease containment and prevention.

“In this respect, it is essential that people try to adhere as much as practically possible to existing guidelines, namely, use of face masks, maintaining social distancing, and working from home wherever possible.”

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

None received.