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expert reaction to latest R number and growth rate estimates published by the government

The government have released the latest estimates for the COVID-19 growth rate and R value.

 

Prof Oliver Johnson, Professor of Information Theory, School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, said:

“The latest ONS and R number estimates suggest the epidemic is close to constant in size in most regions, although there is encouraging evidence that the situation is slowly improving in the North West where stricter measures were introduced first.  Because of the time it takes to develop symptoms and due to delays in reporting, these numbers probably don’t yet reflect the full effect of lockdown, so we can hope there may be small further improvements in future weeks, and that the size of the epidemic may even have stopped growing for now.  However, because the prevalence of coronavirus is currently so high, it seems likely the UK will remain close to an average of 400 deaths per day for the next few weeks, and hospitals are likely to remain under pressure.”

 

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

 

 

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

 

 

Declared interests

None received.

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