April 21, 2020

expert reaction to latest ONS weekly COVID-19 stats

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) have released their weekly retrospective figures for deaths in the UK, including deaths relating to COVID-19.

Prof Martin Hibberd, Professor of Emerging Infectious Disease at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said:

“The latest figures from the ONS, for week 15 (ending on 10th of April), continue the rapid upward swing from last week to 18,516 deaths, which represents a 42% increase over the expected number of deaths. This time, COVID-19 was mentioned in 6,213 of the deaths, representing the majority (78%) of this excess. With limited testing being carried out, it may be that all of the 7,996 excess deaths were directly due to COVID-19, but it is also likely that at least some of these were indirectly involved, such as through inability to access typical medical care for other conditions because of COVID-19 activities. ONS also provide an interesting comparison to Influenza, where 2,003 deaths were reported, which is a little less than the predicted 2,072 for week 15. Influenza cases might be expected to drop as a result of the COVID-19 social distancing measures.

“However, comparisons between COVID-19 and Influenza are difficult because Influenza is a well-established pathogen enabling widespread exposure, but with some protection from previous exposures and vaccines; whereas COVID-19 is new, with more limited (but to date unknown) exposure.  But clearly, COVID-19 is a far more important cause of death than Influenza.

“The increase in deaths of 7,996 over expected number represents about 43% of the total deaths reported. This is an increase since the 37% reported last week. This is the number that we can perhaps attribute to COVID-19 (directly or indirectly). So this 7,996 is an increase of 76% over the expected number.”

Prof Keith Neal, Emeritus Professor of the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Nottingham, said:

“These latest figures from the ONS show that over 6000 of the 8000 excess deaths reported in the week up to 10^th April 2020 were COVID-19 related.  We know deaths are occurring outside hospitals and this is the best way we have in determining this.  To ensure it captures all death registrations, this data is delayed as part of the death registration process.  It cannot be used to follow the latest developments in the progress of the epidemic.  What we need for this is data as close to the point of infection which is best reflected in the pillar 1 daily test result data.  The ONS data will include people who acquired their infections up to 6 weeks ago.”

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparisonofweeklydeathoccurrencesinenglandandwales/uptoweekending10april2020

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

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