August 4, 2020

expert reaction to latest ONS stats on deaths in England and Wales up to week ending 24 July 2020

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released the latest figures for deaths in England and Wales, including deaths form COVID-19 in all settings.

Prof Carl Heneghan, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, and Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford, said:

“In the week ending the 24th of July, 8,891 deaths were registered in England and Wales (161 fewer than the five-year average).  This is the 6th week in a row that we have observed fewer deaths (1,413 fewer deaths than expected over these six weeks).

“There were 217 deaths registered with COVID, but only 167 occurred in week 30 (an average of 24 a day).  Some of these deaths will not be related to active infection, and COVID will, therefore not be the immediate cause (Individuals could have tested positive some time ago and died from complications or from another cause).

“These 167 deaths equate to one registered death for every 353,987 people in England and Wales (population estimate 59,115,809).

“These deaths do not match the Public Health England data, which reported 442 deaths in England alone for the week to the 24th of July.  Given the inaccuracies in the PHE data set it should be discontinued.

“There were no deaths in children under 14 for week 30.  The last death was in week 23 (week ending 5th June) for this age group.  In children aged 1 to 14 there have been five COVID deaths in the total outbreak this year – a very low risk – approximately one registered death for every 2 million children aged 1-14 (population estimate for this age band 10,004,735).

“In over 85s, those most at risk,  COVID deaths continue it fall – 71 people died in week 30 (approximately 1 death per 20,000 in over 85s).  This is a substantial reduction (98% fewer) from the peak in week 16 when 3,435 deaths occurred in over 85s.

“It remains concerning that while the number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments remains below the five-year average the number of deaths in private homes remains higher than the five-year average (727 more deaths in week 30).  The number of deaths in the home setting is almost 40% higher than the total number registered with COVID-19 in any setting over the last six weeks (4,526 versus 2,799).

“Source for population structures: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/ukpopulationpyramidinteractive/2020-01-08.”

https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/deathsregisteredinenglandandwalesprovisionalweekending24july2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24july2020

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

None received.