May 30, 2020

expert reaction to latest figures on COVID-19 reported deaths in hospitals in England

NHS England have published* the latest figure for reported deaths in hospitals in England from COVID-19 – an additional 146 deaths since yesterday, bringing the total to 26,529.

Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“The nowcasts by Professor Bent Nielsen and me for confirmed hospitalized COVID-19 deaths in England (and for each English region) are now updated only weekly as these deaths have reduced to from their peak for all England of around 900 to approaching 100 per day. Also, the reporting delays have reduced, see http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0078/Covid/index.htm. For example of the 985 hospitalized confirmed COVID-19 deaths announced in the past week, 18% had occurred on the day before, 48% on the two preceding days, 21% a further 1-7 days back; with only 13% more than 10 days back.

“We shall resume daily updating should this become informative; and thereby necessary.”

Prof Carl Heneghan and Dr Jason Oke, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, said:

“Today’s reported figure is 146 deaths in hospitals in England: 107 (73%) of these were in the last week. (For further detail, see our report here: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-30th-may/).

“For comparison: the reported deaths in hospitals in England on the same weekday were:

• 23rd May: 157 Deaths
• 16th May: 181 deaths
• 9th May:  207 deaths
• 2nd May: 370 deaths
• 25th April: 711 deaths
• 18th April: 784 deaths

“There were 12 (9.2%) Hospital Trusts** with no deaths reported in the last 7 days, and 46 (35.1%) reported no deaths in the last 48 hours.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gmVPQsT1o8Y5IgHzxB32KeUuNaxStn475aOJcTPz3q0/edit#gid=425522040

“**The sample includes 131 Type 1 A&E departments that are consultant-led 24-hour service with full resuscitation facilities and designated accommodation for the reception of accident and emergency patients.”

* https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/covid-19/

Declared interests

None received.