April 15, 2020

expert reaction to latest figures on COVID-19 cases and deaths in UK

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) have announced the latest reported figures for cases (98,476) of and deaths (12,868) from COVID-19 in the UK.

Prof Carl Heneghan and Prof Jason Oke from the University of Oxford have updated their analysis with today’s figures see here:

April 15th – COVID-19 Death Data in England

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-15th-april/

Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and Professor of Structural Biology at the University of Oxford, said:

“Provided delays due to the Easter weekend have not distorted these figures, then today’s number of announced hospital deaths taken with the last week of data does indicate that this measure of the pandemic may indeed have peaked. If true, any sense of relief must be tempered by the fact that we will see hundreds of hospital deaths announced each day for some time ahead. This number of deaths is an underestimate of the true toll and will increase as deaths in care homes and the wider community are added. However, I do not expect these deaths to significantly alter our understanding of when the peak has occurred. It is worth noting that if the death toll has indeed peaked, it suggests that the softer social distancing measures introduced before the lockdown may have had some positive effect and a bigger effect can therefore be expected as the lockdown measures work through. Public support for these measures has been crucial and saved lives. We do not yet have vaccine or a guaranteed safe lifesaving medicine. Without either of these available to us, whatever we do next – in terms of extending or lifting various social distancing and shielding measures – will almost certainly result in deaths, either directly from COVID-19 infection or indirectly from the consequences of the lockdown. The government will have to be very clear about (1) the evidence for  (2) the risks associated with (3) an estimate of lives lost from and (4) goals of the next set of decisions.”

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

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