March 28, 2020

expert reaction to latest figures on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the UK

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has announced that there are now 17,089 confirmed cases of COVID-19, up by 2546, and that there have now been 1019 deaths, an increase of 260 on yesterday. 

Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“There is a chink of light in the darkness – although not yet statistically significant -of  UK’s toll of 842 COVID-19 deaths in Week 13 (21^st to 27^th March 2020). We shall clap all the louder tonight for the NHS.

“Had we been on precisely the same trajectory as Italy was between Week 10 (when Italy reported 176 COVID-19 deaths) and Week 11 (Italy recorded 1049 COVID-19 deaths), UK  would have expected 990 COVID-19 deaths in Week 13, on the basis that UK  reported 166 COVID-19 deaths in Week 12.  

“Italy’s toll in Week 12 was 2,766 COVID-19 deaths (versus 1049 in Week 11, increased by a factor of 2.6) – an heart-breaking increase in terms of lives lost – but not nearly so steep as from 176 to 1049 (6.0-fold higher).

“UK’s COVID-19 deaths are likely to increase in Week 14 but we must hope that the effect of social-distancing (even before lockdown) will begin to be apparent and that the rate of increase moderates.

“We also need to know now the age-distribution of UK’s COVID-19 deaths (all persons; males only) in Weeks 12 and 13 so that we can begin to observe whether the impacts of social distancing and lockdown influence the relative increase in COVID-19 deaths, week-on-week, differently for those aged 70+ years versus: 60-69 years; 50-59 years; and under 50 years of age.”

Prof Brendan Wren, Professor of Microbial Pathogenesis, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:

“Sometimes it is difficult to put the daily death reports into perspective, but the report of 260 deaths in the UK today approximates to a person dying every 5 minutes in our hospitals from COVID-19. With the doubling rate of infection every 4/5 days and the epidemic expected to peak in 2/3 weeks it is possible that we may get to much higher levels in the coming weeks before we see if the social distancing interventions have an impact. Coupled with the observation that the infection can affect all walks of life even without underlying health conditions, this may be a sobering thought for any of the population flouting hygiene measures and/or social distancing.”

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said:

“The news that we have passed the milestone of 1000 COVID19 deaths, while very sad, is unsurprising.  Over the coming weeks we can expect to see the UK’s toll of the disease grow substantially, with increasingly large day-on-day numbers of the deceased.  It is widely anticipated that we will reach a peak of numbers in around a fortnight, but it should be remembered that the strategy of suppressing the peak, will cause it to broaden and we will see peak mortality level off and stay high for some time before it starts to decrease.  It’s therefore essential that people observe social distancing rules in order to start to turn the tide on the coronavirus.”

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/covid-19/

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