April 12, 2020

expert reaction to latest figures on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the UK

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) have announced the latest reported figures for cases (84,279) of and deaths (10,612) from COVID-19 in the UK.

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, said:

“Today’s report on the most recently-reported swab-tests for coronavirus-2  (have I got it test) and on the numbers of persons tested still fails to clarify if the positives are positive-tests (could be more than one test per person) or positive-persons (one test = one person)! I shall assume positive-persons.

“Pillar 1 is defined as swab testing in Public Health England laboratories and NHS hospitals for those with a medical need, and the most critical workers and their families. In Pillar 1, the daily count refers to 15,020 tests; 9,796 persons tested of whom 4,450 were positive so that the percentage of persons tested in Pillar 1 who tested positive was 45%. The ratio of tests to persons tested was 1.53 in Pillar 1, so that there were 53% more tests than there were people tested.

“Pillar 2 is defined as swab testing for key workers and their households. In Pillar 2, number of tests equals number of persons tested, and the positive-rate was 32% (838 positives out of 2630 persons tested).

“In future, in would be useful to have reporting within Pillar 1 subdivided so that the number of tests, persons-tested and positive-testees are disclosed separately for the most critical workers and their families.

“The number of tests on the most critical workers and their families in Pillar 1 may equal its number of persons tested, as in Pillar 2. Comparing the positive-rate between the most critical workers and their families in Pillar 1 and Pillar 2, which relates to key workers and their families, would then be possible.”

Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and University of Oxford, said:

“Today’s announcement marks a terrible milestone of over 10,000 deaths. Based on experience of previous weeks, today’s lower number could well arise from reporting delays due to the weekend and bank holiday. If so there may be higher daily numbers next week as delayed reported deaths end up in future announcements.

“Sir Jeremy Farrar stated a harsh reality, the UK, with over 10,000 deaths, is one of the worst hit countries in Europe. Even this number is an underestimate due to lags in reporting and counting only hospital deaths. We are not in a macabre competition with other countries, every death, here or elsewhere, leaves a grieving family. We are only approaching the end of the beginning, as Sir Jeremy pointed out we could face future waves before we bring an end to this scourge with a vaccine.

“We know a lot more about how the virus spreads, the percentage of asymptomatic individuals, our immune response to the virus, the percentage needing hospital care, the length of hospitalisation, how UK society responds to social distancing messaging and the costs (human and financial) of shutting a modern economy. Due to an unprecedented effort in science we are seeing hints of medicines that hold out hope of reducing fatalities in the near term and a ramp in testing. These have profoundly changed the situation from what we faced at the outset of the first wave. Before taking the next steps, I would expect the government to take and share the most up to date advice from a range of experts across all relevant fields, to identify what we can do better and to see what lessons from elsewhere can be applied here in time to make a difference.”

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/covid-19/

Declared interests

None received.