March 27, 2020

expert reaction to latest DH figures on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the UK

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has released the latest figures for confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19. Rising by 2,921 to 15,579 and by 181 to 759 respectively.  

Prof Jim Naismith FRS FRSE FMedSci, Rosalind Franklin Institute and Oxford University, said:

“Although COVID19 is a mild disease for over 80% of us, today’s deaths will have come as a terrible blow to families. The increase in the deaths are following the exponential pattern predicted in the Imperial College models of the disease.

“This means we are likely to continue see to further increases in the numbers of daily deaths until social distancing measures have their effect. The deaths tomorrow and in the days ahead will be of people who were infected before the social distancing measures were implemented.

“I understand the temptation to live on each day’s numbers, but what matters is what is ahead of us and what we can do to save lives. Our healthcare professionals and scientists are working round the clock. We can make our contribution by showing kindness where we can and by strictly following the government’s recommendations on social distancing.”

Dr Mike Tildesley, Associate Professor, University of Warwick, said:

“The increase in the number of cases and deaths as a result of COVID-19 is unfortunately what we might expect during this phase of the outbreak in the United Kingdom. It is important to state that, whilst the UK entered lockdown on Monday night, it is too soon for us to observe the effect of that intervention policy. Owing to the relatively long incubation period of the disease, most of those confirmed cases will have been infected prior to the introduction of the most severe social distancing measures and therefore over the next few days, we may expect to see the number of daily confirmed cases continue to climb, before starting to decline once the current social distancing measures start to have an effect. It is extremely important that everyone continues to comply with government advice on social distancing so that we can maximise the effectiveness of this policy and start to observe a reduction in the daily reported cases and deaths in the near future.”

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said:

“The news of a further 181 COVID19 deaths, while very sad, is unsurprising. Over the coming weekend we can expect to see the UK’s toll of the disease pass the 1000 threshold and that over the coming weeks, we will see the daily increases in the numbers of deaths, grow ever larger. It’s essential that people observe social distancing rules in order to start to turn the tide on the coronavirus.”

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/covid-19/

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